Loose Leaf Version For Elementary Statistics
3rd Edition
ISBN: 9781260373523
Author: William Navidi Prof., Barry Monk Professor
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 5.2, Problem 18E
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
4. Linear Regression - Model Assumptions and Interpretation
A real estate analyst is studying how house prices (Y) are related to house size in square feet (X). A simple
linear regression model is proposed:
The analyst fits the model and obtains:
•
Ŷ50,000+150X
YBoB₁X + €
•
R² = 0.76
• Residuals show a fan-shaped pattern when plotted against fitted values.
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a) Interpret the slope coefficient in context.
b) Explain what the R² value tells us about the model's performance.
c) Based on the residual pattern, what regression assumption is likely violated? What might be the
consequence?
d) Suggest at least two remedies to improve the model, based on the residual analysis.
5. Probability Distributions – Continuous Random Variables
A factory machine produces metal rods whose lengths (in cm) follow a continuous uniform distribution on the interval [98, 102].
Questions:
a) Define the probability density function (PDF) of the rod length.b) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected rod is shorter than 99 cm.c) Determine the expected value and variance of rod lengths.d) If a sample of 25 rods is selected, what is the probability that their average length is between 99.5 cm and 100.5 cm? Justify your answer using the appropriate distribution.
Chapter 5 Solutions
Loose Leaf Version For Elementary Statistics
Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 9-12, determine whether the statement...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 9--12, determine whether the...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 9-12, determine whether the statement...Ch. 5.1 - Prob. 12ECh. 5.1 - In Exercises 13-18, assume that a fair die is...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 13-18, assume that a fair die is...
Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 13-18, assume that a fair die is...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 13-18, assume that a fair die is...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 13-18, assume that a fair die is...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 13-18, assume that a fair die is...Ch. 5.1 - A fair coin has probability 0.5 of coming up...Ch. 5.1 - Roulette wheels in Nevada have 38 pockets. They...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 21-24, assume that a coin is tossed...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 21-24, assume that a coin is tossed...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 21-24, assume that a coin is tossed...Ch. 5.1 - In Exercises 21-24, assume that a coin is tossed...Ch. 5.1 - How probable is it? Someone computes the...Ch. 5.1 - Do you know SpongeBob? According to a survey by...Ch. 5.1 - Who will you vote for? In a survey of 500 likely...Ch. 5.1 - Job satisfaction: In a poll conducted by the...Ch. 5.1 - True-false exam: A section of an exam contains...Ch. 5.1 - A coin flip: A coil is tossed twee times. The...Ch. 5.1 - Empirical Method: A coin is tossed 400 times and...Ch. 5.1 - Empirical Method: A die is rolled 600 times. On 85...Ch. 5.1 - Pitching: During a recent season, pitcher Clayton...Ch. 5.1 - More Pitching: During a recent season, pitcher Jon...Ch. 5.1 - Risky drivers: An automobile insurance company...Ch. 5.1 - Prob. 36ECh. 5.1 - Roulette: A Nevada roulette wheel has 38 pockets....Ch. 5.1 - More roulette: Refer to Exercise 37. What is the...Ch. 5.1 - Get an education: The General Social Survey asked...Ch. 5.1 - How many kids? The General Social Survey asked...Ch. 5.1 - Hospital visits: According to Agency for...Ch. 5.1 - Prob. 42ECh. 5.1 - Prob. 43ECh. 5.1 - Prob. 44ECh. 5.1 - Prob. 45ECh. 5.1 - Find the probability: What is the probability that...Ch. 5.1 - Find the probability: What is the probability that...Ch. 5.1 - Prob. 48ECh. 5.1 - Prob. 49ECh. 5.1 - Prob. 50ECh. 5.1 - Prob. 51ECh. 5.2 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 5-8, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 9-12, determine whether the statement...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 9-12, determine whether the statement...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 9-12, determine whether the statement...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 9-12, determine whether the statement...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.75,P(B)=0.4, and P(AandB)=0.25, and...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.45,P(B)=0.7, and P(AandB)=0.65, find...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.2,P(B)=0.5, and A and B are mutually...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.7,P(B)=0.1, and A and B are mutually...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.3,P(B)=0.4, and P(A and B =0.7, are A...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.5,P(B)=0.4, and P(A and B =0.8, are A...Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0.35, find P(AC).Ch. 5.2 - If P(B)=0.6, find P(BC).Ch. 5.2 - If P(AC)=0.27, find P(A).Ch. 5.2 - If P(BC)=0.64, find P(B).Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=0, find P(AC).Ch. 5.2 - If P(A)=P(AC), find P(A).Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 25-30, determine whether events A and...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 25-30, determine whether events A and...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 25-30, determine whether events A and...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 25-30, determine whether events A and...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 25-30, determine whether events A and...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 25-30, determine whether events A and...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 31 and 32, find the complements of...Ch. 5.2 - In Exercises 31 and 32, find the complements of...Ch. 5.2 - Traffic lights: A commuter passes through two...Ch. 5.2 - Dice: Two fair dice are rolled. The first die is...Ch. 5.2 - Car repairs: Let E be the event that a new car...Ch. 5.2 - Sick computers: Let V be the event that a computer...Ch. 5.2 - Computer purchases: Out of 800 large purchases...Ch. 5.2 - Visit your local library: On a recent Saturday. a...Ch. 5.2 - How are your grades? In a recent semester at a...Ch. 5.2 - Statistics grades: In a statistics class of 30...Ch. 5.2 - Sick children: There are 25 students in Mrs. Bushs...Ch. 5.2 - Flawed parts: On a certain day, a foundry...Ch. 5.2 - Senators: The following table displays the 100...Ch. 5.2 - The following table presents the number of reports...Ch. 5.2 - Add probabilities? In a certain community, 28% of...Ch. 5.2 - Add probabilities? According to the National...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 47ECh. 5.2 - Prob. 48ECh. 5.3 - In Exercises 7-10, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 7-10, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 7-10, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 7-10, fill in each blank with the...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 11ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 12ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 13ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 14ECh. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.4,P(B)=0.7, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.6,P(B)=0.4, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.2 and P(B)=0.9....Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.5 and P(B)=0.7....Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.8,P(B)=0.1, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.3,P(B)=0.5, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A, B, and C be independent events with...Ch. 5.3 - Let A, B, and C be independent events with...Ch. 5.3 - A fair is tossed four times. What is the...Ch. 5.3 - A fair coin is tossed four times. What is the...Ch. 5.3 - A fair die is rolled three times. What is the...Ch. 5.3 - A fair die is rolled three times. What is the...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 27-30, assume that a student is...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 27-30, assume that a student is...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 27-30, assume that a student is...Ch. 5.3 - In Exercises 27-30, assume that a student is...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.25,P(B)=0.4, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.6,P(B)=0.9, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.4,P(B)=0.5, and...Ch. 5.3 - Let A and B be events with P(A)=0.5,P(B)=0.3, and...Ch. 5.3 - A fair die is rolled three times. What is the...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 36ECh. 5.3 - Job interview: Seven people, named Anna, Bob,...Ch. 5.3 - Shuffle: Charles has songs on a playlist. Each...Ch. 5.3 - Lets eat: A fast-food restaurant chain has 600...Ch. 5.3 - U.S. senators: The following table displays the...Ch. 5.3 - Genetics: A geneticist is studying two genes. Each...Ch. 5.3 - Quality control: A population of 600 semiconductor...Ch. 5.3 - Stay in school: In a recent school year in the...Ch. 5.3 - Management: The Bureau of Labor Statistics...Ch. 5.3 - GED: In a certain school. the probability that a...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 46ECh. 5.3 - New car: At a certain car dealership, the...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 48ECh. 5.3 - Target practice: Laura and Philip each fire one...Ch. 5.3 - Bowling: Sarah and Thomas are going bowling. The...Ch. 5.3 - Defective components: A lot of 10 components...Ch. 5.3 - More defective components: A lot of 1000...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 53ECh. 5.3 - Multiply probabilities? A traffic light at an...Ch. 5.3 - Lottery: Every day: Jorge buys a lottery ticket....Ch. 5.3 - Car warranty: The a certain make of car will need...Ch. 5.3 - Tic-tac-toe: In the game of tic-tac-toe, fall...Ch. 5.3 - Enter your PIN: The technology consulting company...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 59ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 60ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 61ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 62ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 63ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 64ECh. 5.3 - Prob. 65ECh. 5.4 - In Exercises 7 and 8, fill in the blank with the...Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 7 and 8, fill in the blank with the...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 9ECh. 5.4 - Exercises 9 and 10, determine whether the...Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 11-16, evaluate the factorial. 9!Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 11-16, evaluate the factorial. 5!Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 11-16, evaluate the factorial. 0!Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 11-16, evaluate the factorial. 12!Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 11-16, evaluate the factorial. 1!Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 16ECh. 5.4 - In Exercises 17-22, evaluate the permutation. 7P3Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 17-22, evaluate the permutation. 8P1Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 17-22, evaluate the permutation....Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 17-22, evaluate the permutation. 5P4Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 17-22, evaluate the permutation. 20P0Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 17-22, evaluate the permutation. 45P5Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 23-28, evaluate the combination. 9C5Ch. 5.4 - In Exercises 23-28, evaluate the combination. 7C1Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 25ECh. 5.4 - Prob. 26ECh. 5.4 - In Exercises 23-28, evaluate the combination. 12C0Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 28ECh. 5.4 - Pizza time: A local pizza parlor is offering a...Ch. 5.4 - Books: Josephine has chemistry books, three...Ch. 5.4 - Playing the horses: In horseracing, one can make a...Ch. 5.4 - Ice cream: A certain ice cream parlor offers 15...Ch. 5.4 - License plates: In a certain state, license plates...Ch. 5.4 - Committee: The Student Council at a certain school...Ch. 5.4 - Day and night shifts: A company has hired 12 new...Ch. 5.4 - Keep your password safe: A computer password...Ch. 5.4 - Its in your genes: Hunan genetic material ONA) is...Ch. 5.4 - Choosing officers: A committee consists of 10...Ch. 5.4 - Texas hold'em, In the game of Texas hold'em, a...Ch. 5.4 - Blackjack: In single-deck casino blackjack the...Ch. 5.4 - Lottery: In the Georgia Fantasy 5 Lottery, balls...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 42ECh. 5.4 - Prob. 43ECh. 5 - Fill in the blank: The probability that a fair...Ch. 5 - Prob. 2CQCh. 5 - State each of the following rules: General...Ch. 5 - Prob. 4CQCh. 5 - Prob. 5CQCh. 5 - In a group of 100 teenagers, 61 received their...Ch. 5 - A certain has 100 households. Forty-eight...Ch. 5 - Prob. 8CQCh. 5 - Prob. 9CQCh. 5 - Prob. 10CQCh. 5 - Prob. 11CQCh. 5 - Prob. 12CQCh. 5 - Prob. 13CQCh. 5 - Prob. 14CQCh. 5 - Prob. 15CQCh. 5 - Prob. 1RECh. 5 - Prob. 2RECh. 5 - Statistics, anyone? Let S be the event that a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 4RECh. 5 - Prob. 5RECh. 5 - Prob. 6RECh. 5 - Defective parts: A process manufactures...Ch. 5 - Music to my ears: Jeri is listening to songs on a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 9RECh. 5 - Heart attack: The following table presents the...Ch. 5 - Rainy weekend: Sally is planning to go away for...Ch. 5 - Prob. 12RECh. 5 - Required courses: Refer to Exercise 12. Assume the...Ch. 5 - Bookshelf: Bart has books: a novel, a biography, a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 15RECh. 5 - Prob. 1WAICh. 5 - Prob. 2WAICh. 5 - Prob. 3WAICh. 5 - Prob. 4WAICh. 5 - Sometimes events are in the form at least a given...Ch. 5 - Prob. 6WAICh. 5 - Prob. 7WAICh. 5 - Prob. 8WAICh. 5 - Prob. 1CSCh. 5 - Prob. 2CSCh. 5 - Prob. 3CSCh. 5 - Prob. 4CSCh. 5 - Prob. 5CSCh. 5 - Prob. 6CSCh. 5 - Prob. 7CSCh. 5 - Prob. 8CSCh. 5 - In Exercises 1-5, we computed the probability that...
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