PROBABILITY & STATS FOR ENGINEERING &SCI
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781285099804
Author: DEVORE
Publisher: CENGAGE L
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Chapter 4.6, Problem 93E
To determine
Construct the normal
Check whether it is plausible that the population distribution is lognormal.
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In a survey of a group of men, the heights in the 20-29 age group were normally distributed, with a mean of 69.6 inches
and a standard deviation of 4.0 inches. A study participant is randomly selected. Complete parts (a) through (d) below.
(a) Find the probability that a study participant has a height that is less than 68 inches.
The probability that the study participant selected at random is less than 68 inches tall is 0.4. (Round to four decimal
places as needed.)
20
2
PEER REPLY 1:
Choose a classmate's Main Post and review their decision making process.
1. Choose a risk level for each of the states of nature (assign a probability
value to each).
2. Explain why each risk level is chosen.
3. Which alternative do you believe would be the best based on the maximum
EMV?
4. Do you feel determining the expected value with perfect information
(EVWPI) is worthwhile in this situation? Why or why not?
Questions
An insurance company's cumulative incurred claims for the last 5 accident years are given
in the following table:
Development Year
Accident Year 0
2018
1 2 3 4
245 267 274 289 292
2019
255 276 288 294
2020
265 283 292
2021
263 278
2022
271
It can be assumed that claims are fully run off after 4 years. The premiums received for
each year are:
Accident Year Premium
2018
306
2019
312
2020
318
2021
326
2022
330
You do not need to make any allowance for inflation.
1. (a) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the basic chain ladder method.
(b) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.
2. Comment on the differences in the reserves produced by the methods in Part 1.
Chapter 4 Solutions
PROBABILITY & STATS FOR ENGINEERING &SCI
Ch. 4.1 - The current in a certain circuit as measured by an...Ch. 4.1 - Suppose the reaction temperature X (in C) in a...Ch. 4.1 - The error involved in making a certain measurement...Ch. 4.1 - Let X denote the vibratory stress (psi) on a wind...Ch. 4.1 - A college professor never finishes his lecture...Ch. 4.1 - The actual tracking weight of a stereo cartridge...Ch. 4.1 - The article Second Moment Reliability Evaluation...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 8ECh. 4.1 - Based on an analysis of sample data, the article...Ch. 4.1 - A family of pdfs that has been used to approximate...
Ch. 4.2 - Let X denote the amount of time a book on two-hour...Ch. 4.2 - The cdf for X (= measurement error) of Exercise 3...Ch. 4.2 - Prob. 13ECh. 4.2 - The article Modeling Sediment and Water Column...Ch. 4.2 - Let X denote the amount of space occupied by an...Ch. 4.2 - The article A Model of Pedestrians Waiting Times...Ch. 4.2 - Let X have a uniform distribution on the interval...Ch. 4.2 - Let X denote the voltage at the output of a...Ch. 4.2 - Let X be a continuous rv with cdf...Ch. 4.2 - Consider the pdf for total waiting time Y for two...Ch. 4.2 - An ecologist wishes to mark off a circular...Ch. 4.2 - The weekly demand for propane gas (in 1000s of...Ch. 4.2 - If the temperature at which a certain compound...Ch. 4.2 - Let X have the Pareto pdf f(x;k,)={kkxk+1x0x...Ch. 4.2 - Let X be the temperature in C at which a certain...Ch. 4.2 - Let X be the total medical expenses (in 1000s of...Ch. 4.2 - Prob. 27ECh. 4.3 - Let Z be a standard normal random variable and...Ch. 4.3 - In each case, determine the value of the constant...Ch. 4.3 - Find the following percentiles for the standard...Ch. 4.3 - Determine z for the following values of : a. =...Ch. 4.3 - Suppose the force acting on a column that helps to...Ch. 4.3 - Mopeds (small motorcycles with an engine capacity...Ch. 4.3 - The article Reliability of Domestic-Waste Biofilm...Ch. 4.3 - In a road-paving process, asphalt mix is delivered...Ch. 4.3 - Spray drift is a constant concern for pesticide...Ch. 4.3 - Suppose that blood chloride concentration (mmol/L)...Ch. 4.3 - There are two machines available for cutting corks...Ch. 4.3 - The defect length of a corrosion defect in a...Ch. 4.3 - The article Monte Carlo SimulationTool for Better...Ch. 4.3 - The automatic opening device of a military cargo...Ch. 4.3 - The temperature reading from a thermocouple placed...Ch. 4.3 - Vehicle speed on a particular bridge in China can...Ch. 4.3 - If bolt thread length is normally distributed,...Ch. 4.3 - A machine that produces ball bearings has...Ch. 4.3 - The Rockwell hardness of a metal is determined by...Ch. 4.3 - The weight distribution of parcels sent in a...Ch. 4.3 - Suppose Appendix Table A.3 contained (z) only for...Ch. 4.3 - Consider babies born in the normal range of 3743...Ch. 4.3 - In response to concerns about nutritional contents...Ch. 4.3 - Chebyshevs inequality, (see Exercise 44, Chapter...Ch. 4.3 - Let X denote the number of flaws along a 100-m...Ch. 4.3 - Let X have a binomial distribution with parameters...Ch. 4.3 - Suppose that 10% of all steel shafts produced by a...Ch. 4.3 - Suppose only 75% of all drivers in a certain state...Ch. 4.3 - Show that the relationship between a general...Ch. 4.3 - a. Show that if X has a normal distribution with...Ch. 4.3 - There is no nice formula for the standard normal...Ch. 4.4 - Let X = the time between two successive arrivals...Ch. 4.4 - Let X denote the distance (m) that an animal moves...Ch. 4.4 - Data collected at Toronto Pearson International...Ch. 4.4 - The article Microwave Observations of Daily...Ch. 4.4 - A consumer is trying to decide between two...Ch. 4.4 - Evaluate the following: a. (6) b. (5/2) c. F(4; 5)...Ch. 4.4 - Let X denote the data transfer time (ms) in a grid...Ch. 4.4 - The two-parameter gamma distribution can be...Ch. 4.4 - Suppose that when a transistor of a certain type...Ch. 4.4 - The special case of the gamma distribution in...Ch. 4.4 - A system consists of five identical components...Ch. 4.4 - If X has an exponential distribution with...Ch. 4.4 - a. The event {X2 y} is equivalent to what event...Ch. 4.5 - The lifetime X (in hundreds of hours) of a certain...Ch. 4.5 - The authors of the article A Probabilistic...Ch. 4.5 - Prob. 74ECh. 4.5 - Let X have a Weibull distribution with the pdf...Ch. 4.5 - The article The Statistics of Phytotoxic Air...Ch. 4.5 - Prob. 77ECh. 4.5 - The article On Assessing the Accuracy of Offshore...Ch. 4.5 - Nonpoint source loads are chemical masses that...Ch. 4.5 - a. Use Equation (4.13) to write a formula for the...Ch. 4.5 - Sales delay is the elapsed time between the...Ch. 4.5 - As in the case of the Weibull and Gamma...Ch. 4.5 - What condition on and is necessary for the...Ch. 4.5 - Suppose the proportion X of surface area in a...Ch. 4.5 - Let X have a standard beta density with parameters...Ch. 4.5 - Stress is applied to a 20-in. steel bar that is...Ch. 4.6 - The accompanying normal probability plot was...Ch. 4.6 - A sample of 15 female collegiate golfers was...Ch. 4.6 - Prob. 89ECh. 4.6 - The article A Probabilistic Model of Fracture in...Ch. 4.6 - Construct a normal probability plot for the...Ch. 4.6 - The article The Load-Life Relationship for M50...Ch. 4.6 - Prob. 93ECh. 4.6 - The accompanying observations are precipitation...Ch. 4.6 - Use a statistical software package to construct a...Ch. 4.6 - Prob. 96ECh. 4.6 - The following failure time observations (1000s of...Ch. 4 - Let X = the time it takes a read/write head to...Ch. 4 - Prob. 99SECh. 4 - Let X denote the time to failure (in years) of a...Ch. 4 - The completion time X for a certain task has cdf...Ch. 4 - Let X represent the number of individuals who...Ch. 4 - The article Computer Assisted Net Weight...Ch. 4 - When circuit boards used in the manufacture of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 105SECh. 4 - The reaction time (in seconds) to a certain...Ch. 4 - Let X denote the temperature at which a certain...Ch. 4 - An oocyte is a female germ cell involved in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 109SECh. 4 - Prob. 110SECh. 4 - Prob. 111SECh. 4 - The article Error Distribution in Navigation (J....Ch. 4 - Prob. 113SECh. 4 - Suppose a particular state allows individuals...Ch. 4 - Let Ii be the input current to a transistor and I0...Ch. 4 - Prob. 116SECh. 4 - Prob. 117SECh. 4 - a. Suppose the lifetime X of a component, when...Ch. 4 - Prob. 119SECh. 4 - Prob. 120SECh. 4 - The article Three Sisters Give Birth on the Same...Ch. 4 - Let X denote the lifetime of a component, with f...Ch. 4 - Prob. 123SECh. 4 - Prob. 124SECh. 4 - A function g(x) is convex if the chord connecting...Ch. 4 - Let X have a Weibull distribution with parameters ...Ch. 4 - An individuals credit score is a number calculated...Ch. 4 - Prob. 128SE
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