Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis (with CD Data Sets)
3rd Edition
ISBN: 9780534399429
Author: John A. Rice
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 3.8, Problem 34P
To determine
Obtain the posterior density.
Provide the graph of prior density and posterior density.
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Questions
An insurance company's cumulative incurred claims for the last 5 accident years are given
in the following table:
Development Year
Accident Year 0
2018
1 2 3 4
245 267 274 289 292
2019
255 276 288 294
2020
265 283 292
2021
263 278
2022
271
It can be assumed that claims are fully run off after 4 years. The premiums received for
each year are:
Accident Year Premium
2018
306
2019
312
2020
318
2021
326
2022
330
You do not need to make any allowance for inflation.
1. (a) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the basic chain ladder method.
(b) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.
2. Comment on the differences in the reserves produced by the methods in Part 1.
Chapter 3 Solutions
Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis (with CD Data Sets)
Ch. 3.8 - Prob. 1PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 2PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 3PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 4PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 5PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 6PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 7PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 8PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 9PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 3.8 - Prob. 11PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 12PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 13PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 14PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 15PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 16PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 17PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 18PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 19PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 20PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 22PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 23PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 24PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 25PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 27PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 33PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 34PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 35PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 38PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 39PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 44PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 45PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 46PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 47PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 48PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 50PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 51PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 52PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 53PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 54PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 55PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 56PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 57PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 58PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 60PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 61PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 62PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 63PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 64PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 65PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 66PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 67PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 68PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 69PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 70PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 71PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 72PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 73PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 74PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 75PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 76PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 77PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 78PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 79PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 80PCh. 3.8 - Prob. 81P
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