EBK PROBABILITY & STATISTICS FOR ENGINE
EBK PROBABILITY & STATISTICS FOR ENGINE
16th Edition
ISBN: 9780321997401
Author: AKRITAS
Publisher: PEARSON CUSTOM PUB.(CONSIGNMENT)
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Chapter 2.5, Problem 7E

(a)

To determine

Construct a tree diagram.

(b)

To determine

Find the probability that a baby would survive delivery if a C section is not performed.

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Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree. a.  Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful. The risk tolerance must reach $ ____________ before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company. b.  With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ ___________ .
A television network earns an average of $14 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $8 million each season on a program that turns out to be a flop. Of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm will analyze a pilot episode of a prospective program and issue a report predicting whether the given program will end up being a hit. If the program is actually going to be a hit, there is a 75% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. If the program is actually going to be a flop, there is only a 30% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. What is the maximum value of C that the network should be willing to pay the market research firm? Enter your answer in dollars, not in million dollars. $ __________ Calculate EVPI for this decision problem. Enter your answer in dollars, not in million…
Two construction companies are bidding against one another for the right to construct a new community center building. The first construction company, Fine Line Homes, believes that its competitor, Buffalo Valley Construction, will place a bid for this project according to the distribution shown in this table: Buffalo Valley's Bid Bid Probability $160,000 0.2 $165,000 0.5 $170,000 0.2 $175,000 0.1 Furthermore, Fine Line Homes estimates that it will cost $160,000 for its own company to construct this building. Given its fine reputation and long-standing service within the local community, Fine Line Homes believes that it will likely be awarded the project in the event that it and Buffalo Valley Construction submit exactly the same bids. Find the bid that maximizes Fine Line’s expected profit. Max expected profit $ ________ . Bid that maximizes profit $ ________ .
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