EBK STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780100460461
Author: Anderson
Publisher: YUZU
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Chapter 17.4, Problem 21E
a.
To determine
Construct the time series plot.
Explain the type of pattern.
b.
To determine
Calculate linear trend equation for data.
c.
To determine
Calculate the forecast for 2012.
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An insurance company's cumulative incurred claims for the last 5 accident years are given
in the following table:
Development Year
Accident Year 0
2018
1 2 3 4
245 267 274 289 292
2019
255 276 288 294
2020
265 283 292
2021
263 278
2022
271
It can be assumed that claims are fully run off after 4 years. The premiums received for
each year are:
Accident Year Premium
2018
306
2019
312
2020
318
2021
326
2022
330
You do not need to make any allowance for inflation.
1. (a) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the basic chain ladder method.
(b) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.
2. Comment on the differences in the reserves produced by the methods in Part 1.
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Chapter 17 Solutions
EBK STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
Ch. 17.2 - Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2...Ch. 17.2 - Refer to the time series data in exercise 1. Using...Ch. 17.2 - Exercises 1 and 2 used different forecasting...Ch. 17.2 - Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2...Ch. 17.3 - Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in...Ch. 17.3 - Refer again to the gasoline sales time series data...Ch. 17.3 - With the gasoline time series data from Table...Ch. 17.3 - With a smoothing constant of = .2, equation...
Ch. 17.3 - For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages...Ch. 17.3 - Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12...Ch. 17.3 - The values of Alabama building contracts (in ...Ch. 17.3 - The following time series shows the sales of a...Ch. 17.3 - Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index...Ch. 17.3 - The U.S. Census Bureau tracks the median price for...Ch. 17.4 - Consider the following time series data. a....Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 18ECh. 17.4 - Consider the following time series. a. Construct a...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 20ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 21ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 22ECh. 17.4 - The president of a small manufacturing firm is...Ch. 17.4 - FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), a database...Ch. 17.4 - Automobile unit sales at B. J. Scott Motors, Inc.,...Ch. 17.4 - Giovanni Food Products produces and sells frozen...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 27ECh. 17.5 - Consider the following time series. a. Construct a...Ch. 17.5 - Consider the following time series data. a....Ch. 17.5 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.5 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.5 - South Shore Construction builds permanent docks...Ch. 17.5 - Prob. 33ECh. 17.5 - Three years of monthly lawn-maintenance expenses...Ch. 17.6 - Consider the following time series data. a....Ch. 17.6 - Refer to exercise 35. a. Deseasonalize the time...Ch. 17.6 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.6 - Three years of monthly lawn-maintenance expenses...Ch. 17.6 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.6 - Electric power consumption is measured in...Ch. 17 - The weekly demand (in cases) for a particular...Ch. 17 - The following table reports the percentage of...Ch. 17 - United Dairies. Inc., supplies milk to several...Ch. 17 - Prob. 44SECh. 17 - Prob. 45SECh. 17 - The Mayfair Department Store in Davenport, Iowa,...Ch. 17 - Canton Supplies, Inc., is a service firm that...Ch. 17 - The Costello Music Company has been in business...Ch. 17 - Consider the Costello Music Company problem in...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Costello Music Company problem in...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Costello Music Company time series in...Ch. 17 - Hudson Marine has been an authorized dealer for CD...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise 52....Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise 53....Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine data in exercise 53. a....Ch. 17 - Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales The Vintage...Ch. 17 - Forecasting Lost Sales The Carlson Department...
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