EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
12th Edition
ISBN: 8220100283963
Author: Stevenson
Publisher: YUZU
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Question
Chapter 1.6, Problem 3RQ
Summary Introduction
Case summary:
The case deals about the importance of the manufacturing sector. The employment opportunities and development of the service sector does not mean that the manufacturing sector is not important to the economy. Technological innovation and outsourcing decreases the employment opportunity in the manufacturing sector.
The case strongly states that manufacturing sector is the source of innovation and the innovation would generate job in the future.
To determine: The importance of manufacturing innovation.
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 1 Solutions
EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Ch. 1.6 - Prob. 1RQCh. 1.6 - Prob. 2RQCh. 1.6 - Prob. 3RQCh. 1.9 - There is a huge demand in the United States and...Ch. 1.10 - Prob. 1OTQCh. 1.10 - Prob. 2OTQCh. 1.10 - Prob. 3OTQCh. 1 - Prob. 1DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 2DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 3DRQ
Ch. 1 - List five important differences between goods...Ch. 1 - Briefly discuss each of these terms related to the...Ch. 1 - Prob. 6DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 7DRQCh. 1 - Why is the degree of customization an important...Ch. 1 - List the trade-offs you would consider for each of...Ch. 1 - Prob. 10DRQCh. 1 - Why might some workers prefer not to work in a...Ch. 1 - Prob. 12DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 13DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 14DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 15DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 16DRQCh. 1 - Prob. 17DRQCh. 1 - What are trade-offs? Why it careful consideration...Ch. 1 - Prob. 2TSCh. 1 - Prob. 3TSCh. 1 - Prob. 1CTECh. 1 - Prob. 2CTECh. 1 - Prob. 3CTECh. 1 - Prob. 4CTECh. 1 - Prob. 1CQCh. 1 - Prob. 2CQCh. 1 - What are some of the trade-offs that Hazel...Ch. 1 - The town is considering an ordinance that would...Ch. 1 - Prob. 5CQCh. 1 - Prob. 6CQCh. 1 - Prob. 7CQ
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