BASIC BUSINESS STATISTICS
14th Edition
ISBN: 9780135285923
Author: MARK BERENSON
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 16, Problem 29PS
a.
To determine
Fit a third order auto regressive model and test for significance of model.
b.
To determine
Fit a second order auto regressive model and test for significance of model.
c.
To determine
Fit a first order auto regressive model and test for significance of model.
d.
To determine
Forecast the value of car production in 2017.
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Students have asked these similar questions
One hundred students were surveyed about their preference between dogs and cats. The following two-way table displays data for the sample of students who responded to the survey.
Preference
Male
Female
TOTAL
Prefers dogs
\[36\]
\[20\]
\[56\]
Prefers cats
\[10\]
\[26\]
\[36\]
No preference
\[2\]
\[6\]
\[8\]
TOTAL
\[48\]
\[52\]
\[100\]
problem 1
Find the probability that a randomly selected student prefers dogs.Enter your answer as a fraction or decimal.
\[P\left(\text{prefers dogs}\right)=\]
Incorrect
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Hide explanation
Preference
Male
Female
TOTAL
Prefers dogs
\[\blueD{36}\]
\[\blueD{20}\]
\[\blueE{56}\]
Prefers cats
\[10\]
\[26\]
\[36\]
No preference
\[2\]
\[6\]
\[8\]
TOTAL
\[48\]
\[52\]
\[100\]
There were \[\blueE{56}\] students in the sample who preferred dogs out of \[100\] total students.
Business discuss
You have been hired as an intern to run analyses on the data and report the results back to Sarah; the five questions that Sarah needs you to address are given below.
Does there appear to be a positive or negative relationship between price and screen size? Use a scatter plot to examine the relationship.
Determine and interpret the correlation coefficient between the two variables. In your interpretation, discuss the direction of the relationship (positive, negative, or zero relationship). Also discuss the strength of the relationship.
Estimate the relationship between screen size and price using a simple linear regression model and interpret the estimated coefficients. (In your interpretation, tell the dollar amount by which price will change for each unit of increase in screen size).
Include the manufacturer dummy variable (Samsung=1, 0 otherwise) and estimate the relationship between screen size, price and manufacturer dummy as a multiple linear regression model.
Interpret the…
Chapter 16 Solutions
BASIC BUSINESS STATISTICS
Ch. 16 - If you are using exponential smoothing for...Ch. 16 - Consider a nine-year moving average used to smooth...Ch. 16 - You are using exponential smoothing on an annual...Ch. 16 - Prob. 4PSCh. 16 - Prob. 5PSCh. 16 - How have stocks performed in the past? The...Ch. 16 - Prob. 7PSCh. 16 - Prob. 8PSCh. 16 - Prob. 9PSCh. 16 - Prob. 10PS
Ch. 16 - The linear trend forecasting equation for an...Ch. 16 - There has been much publicity about bounces paid...Ch. 16 - Prob. 13PSCh. 16 - Prob. 14PSCh. 16 - Prob. 15PSCh. 16 - The data shown in the following table and stored...Ch. 16 - Prob. 17PSCh. 16 - Prob. 18PSCh. 16 - Prob. 19PSCh. 16 - Prob. 20PSCh. 16 - Prob. 21PSCh. 16 - Prob. 22PSCh. 16 - You are given an annual time series with 40...Ch. 16 - Prob. 24PSCh. 16 - Prob. 25PSCh. 16 - Prob. 26PSCh. 16 - Prob. 27PSCh. 16 - Prob. 28PSCh. 16 - Prob. 29PSCh. 16 - Using the average baseball salary from 200 through...Ch. 16 - Using the yearly amount of solar power generated...Ch. 16 - The following residuals are from a linear trend...Ch. 16 - Prob. 33PSCh. 16 - Prob. 34PSCh. 16 - Prob. 35PSCh. 16 - Prob. 36PSCh. 16 - Prob. 37PSCh. 16 - Prob. 38PSCh. 16 - Prob. 39PSCh. 16 - Prob. 40PSCh. 16 - In forecasting daily time-series data, how many...Ch. 16 - In forecasting a quarterly time series over the...Ch. 16 - Prob. 43PSCh. 16 - Prob. 44PSCh. 16 - Are gasoline prices higher during the height of...Ch. 16 - Prob. 46PSCh. 16 - Prob. 47PSCh. 16 - The file Silver-Q contains the price in London for...Ch. 16 - Prob. 49PSCh. 16 - What is a time series?Ch. 16 - What are the different components of a time-series...Ch. 16 - What is the difference between moving average and...Ch. 16 - Prob. 53PSCh. 16 - How does the least-squares linear trend...Ch. 16 - How does autoregressive modelling differ from the...Ch. 16 - What are the different approaches to choosing an...Ch. 16 - What is the major difference between using SYX and...Ch. 16 - How does forecasting for monthly or quarterly data...Ch. 16 - Prob. 60PSCh. 16 - The monthly commercial and residential prices for...Ch. 16 - The data stored in McDonalds represent the gross...Ch. 16 - Teachers’ Retirement System of the City of New...Ch. 16 - Prob. 64PS
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- Does there appear to be a positive or negative relationship between price and screen size? Use a scatter plot to examine the relationship. How to take snapshots: if you use a MacBook, press Command+ Shift+4 to take snapshots. If you are using Windows, use the Snipping Tool to take snapshots. Question 1: Determine and interpret the correlation coefficient between the two variables. In your interpretation, discuss the direction of the relationship (positive, negative, or zero relationship). Also discuss the strength of the relationship. Value of correlation coefficient: Direction of the relationship (positive, negative, or zero relationship): Strength of the relationship (strong/moderate/weak): Question 2: Estimate the relationship between screen size and price using a simple linear regression model and interpret the estimated coefficients. In your interpretation, tell the dollar amount by which price will change for each unit of increase in screen size. (The answer for the…arrow_forwardIn this problem, we consider a Brownian motion (W+) t≥0. We consider a stock model (St)t>0 given (under the measure P) by d.St 0.03 St dt + 0.2 St dwt, with So 2. We assume that the interest rate is r = 0.06. The purpose of this problem is to price an option on this stock (which we name cubic put). This option is European-type, with maturity 3 months (i.e. T = 0.25 years), and payoff given by F = (8-5)+ (a) Write the Stochastic Differential Equation satisfied by (St) under the risk-neutral measure Q. (You don't need to prove it, simply give the answer.) (b) Give the price of a regular European put on (St) with maturity 3 months and strike K = 2. (c) Let X = S. Find the Stochastic Differential Equation satisfied by the process (Xt) under the measure Q. (d) Find an explicit expression for X₁ = S3 under measure Q. (e) Using the results above, find the price of the cubic put option mentioned above. (f) Is the price in (e) the same as in question (b)? (Explain why.)arrow_forwardProblem 4. Margrabe formula and the Greeks (20 pts) In the homework, we determined the Margrabe formula for the price of an option allowing you to swap an x-stock for a y-stock at time T. For stocks with initial values xo, yo, common volatility σ and correlation p, the formula was given by Fo=yo (d+)-x0Þ(d_), where In (±² Ꭲ d+ õ√T and σ = σ√√√2(1 - p). дго (a) We want to determine a "Greek" for ỡ on the option: find a formula for θα (b) Is дго θα positive or negative? (c) We consider a situation in which the correlation p between the two stocks increases: what can you say about the price Fo? (d) Assume that yo< xo and p = 1. What is the price of the option?arrow_forward
- We consider a 4-dimensional stock price model given (under P) by dẴ₁ = µ· Xt dt + йt · ΣdŴt where (W) is an n-dimensional Brownian motion, π = (0.02, 0.01, -0.02, 0.05), 0.2 0 0 0 0.3 0.4 0 0 Σ= -0.1 -4a За 0 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.2) and a E R. We assume that ☑0 = (1, 1, 1, 1) and that the interest rate on the market is r = 0.02. (a) Give a condition on a that would make stock #3 be the one with largest volatility. (b) Find the diversification coefficient for this portfolio as a function of a. (c) Determine the maximum diversification coefficient d that you could reach by varying the value of a? 2arrow_forwardQuestion 1. Your manager asks you to explain why the Black-Scholes model may be inappro- priate for pricing options in practice. Give one reason that would substantiate this claim? Question 2. We consider stock #1 and stock #2 in the model of Problem 2. Your manager asks you to pick only one of them to invest in based on the model provided. Which one do you choose and why ? Question 3. Let (St) to be an asset modeled by the Black-Scholes SDE. Let Ft be the price at time t of a European put with maturity T and strike price K. Then, the discounted option price process (ert Ft) t20 is a martingale. True or False? (Explain your answer.) Question 4. You are considering pricing an American put option using a Black-Scholes model for the underlying stock. An explicit formula for the price doesn't exist. In just a few words (no more than 2 sentences), explain how you would proceed to price it. Question 5. We model a short rate with a Ho-Lee model drt = ln(1+t) dt +2dWt. Then the interest rate…arrow_forwardIn this problem, we consider a Brownian motion (W+) t≥0. We consider a stock model (St)t>0 given (under the measure P) by d.St 0.03 St dt + 0.2 St dwt, with So 2. We assume that the interest rate is r = 0.06. The purpose of this problem is to price an option on this stock (which we name cubic put). This option is European-type, with maturity 3 months (i.e. T = 0.25 years), and payoff given by F = (8-5)+ (a) Write the Stochastic Differential Equation satisfied by (St) under the risk-neutral measure Q. (You don't need to prove it, simply give the answer.) (b) Give the price of a regular European put on (St) with maturity 3 months and strike K = 2. (c) Let X = S. Find the Stochastic Differential Equation satisfied by the process (Xt) under the measure Q. (d) Find an explicit expression for X₁ = S3 under measure Q. (e) Using the results above, find the price of the cubic put option mentioned above. (f) Is the price in (e) the same as in question (b)? (Explain why.)arrow_forward
- The managing director of a consulting group has the accompanying monthly data on total overhead costs and professional labor hours to bill to clients. Complete parts a through c. Question content area bottom Part 1 a. Develop a simple linear regression model between billable hours and overhead costs. Overhead Costsequals=212495.2212495.2plus+left parenthesis 42.4857 right parenthesis42.485742.4857times×Billable Hours (Round the constant to one decimal place as needed. Round the coefficient to four decimal places as needed. Do not include the $ symbol in your answers.) Part 2 b. Interpret the coefficients of your regression model. Specifically, what does the fixed component of the model mean to the consulting firm? Interpret the fixed term, b 0b0, if appropriate. Choose the correct answer below. A. The value of b 0b0 is the predicted billable hours for an overhead cost of 0 dollars. B. It is not appropriate to interpret b 0b0, because its value…arrow_forwardUsing the accompanying Home Market Value data and associated regression line, Market ValueMarket Valueequals=$28,416+$37.066×Square Feet, compute the errors associated with each observation using the formula e Subscript ieiequals=Upper Y Subscript iYiminus−ModifyingAbove Upper Y with caret Subscript iYi and construct a frequency distribution and histogram. LOADING... Click the icon to view the Home Market Value data. Question content area bottom Part 1 Construct a frequency distribution of the errors, e Subscript iei. (Type whole numbers.) Error Frequency minus−15 comma 00015,000less than< e Subscript iei less than or equals≤minus−10 comma 00010,000 0 minus−10 comma 00010,000less than< e Subscript iei less than or equals≤minus−50005000 5 minus−50005000less than< e Subscript iei less than or equals≤0 21 0less than< e Subscript iei less than or equals≤50005000 9…arrow_forwardThe managing director of a consulting group has the accompanying monthly data on total overhead costs and professional labor hours to bill to clients. Complete parts a through c Overhead Costs Billable Hours345000 3000385000 4000410000 5000462000 6000530000 7000545000 8000arrow_forward
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