CUSTOM BLITZER THINKING MATHEMATICALLY
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781323865040
Author: Blitzer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 1.2, Problem 58E
To determine
To describe the circle graph.
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answer number 4
3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
answer number 6
Chapter 1 Solutions
CUSTOM BLITZER THINKING MATHEMATICALLY
Ch. 1.1 - CHECK POINT 1 Find a counterexample to show that...Ch. 1.1 - CHECK POINT 2 Identify a pattern in each list of...Ch. 1.1 - CHECK POINT 3 Identify a pattern in each list of...Ch. 1.1 - CHECK POINT 4 Describe two patterns in this...Ch. 1.1 - CHECK POINT 5 Consider the following procedure:...Ch. 1.1 - The statement 3 + 3 = 6 serves as a/an ________ to...Ch. 1.1 - Arriving at a specific conclusion from one or more...Ch. 1.1 - Arriving at a general conclusion based on...Ch. 1.1 - True or False: A theorem cannot have...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...
Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 1-8, find a counterexample to show...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, Identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Excises 9-38, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 39-42, identify a pattern in each...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 39-42, identify a pattern in each...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 39-42, identify a pattern in each...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 39-42, identify a pattern in each...Ch. 1.1 - Select a number. Multiply the number by 4. Add 8...Ch. 1.1 - Prob. 44ECh. 1.1 - Prob. 45ECh. 1.1 - Prob. 46ECh. 1.1 - In Exercises 47-52, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 47-52, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 47-52, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 47-52, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 47-52, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 47-52, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 53-54, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 53-54, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1.1 - Study the pattern in these examples: a 3 # a 4 = a...Ch. 1.1 - Study the pattern in these examples: a 5 * a 3 * a...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 57-60, identify the reasoning...Ch. 1.1 - In Exercises 57-60, identify the reasoning...Ch. 1.1 - Prob. 59ECh. 1.1 - In Exercises 57-60, identify the reasoning...Ch. 1.1 - The ancient Greeks studies figurate numbers, so...Ch. 1.1 - The triangular arrangement of numbers shown below...Ch. 1.1 - Writing about mathematics will help you to learn...Ch. 1.1 - Describe what is meant by deductive reasoning....Ch. 1.1 - Give an example of a decision that you made...Ch. 1.1 - Make Sense? In Exercises 66-69, determine whether...Ch. 1.1 - Make sense? In Exercises 66-69, determine whether...Ch. 1.1 - I used the data shown in the bar graph, which...Ch. 1.1 - I used the data shown in the bar graph for...Ch. 1.1 - If ( 6 − 2 ) 2 = 36 − 24 + 4 and ( 8 − 5 ) 2 = 64...Ch. 1.1 - 71. The rectangle shows an array of nine numbers...Ch. 1.1 - Write a list of numbers that has two patterns so...Ch. 1.1 - a. Repeat the following procedure with at least...Ch. 1.1 - a. Use a calculator to find 6 × 6 , 66 × 66 , 666...Ch. 1.1 - 75. a. Use a calculator to find , and .
b....Ch. 1.1 - Stereotyping refers to classifying people, places,...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 1 Round world population...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 2 Round 3.141592, the first seven...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 3 You and a friend ate lunch at Ye...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 4 A Landscape architect who works full...Ch. 1.2 -
Source Natural Home and Garden
CHECK POINT 5...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 6 Use the date for women in Figure 1.5...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 7 Use the line graph in Figure 1.7 at...Ch. 1.2 - CHECK POINT 8 The bar graph in Figure 1.9 on the...Ch. 1.2 - The process of arriving at an approximate answer...Ch. 1.2 - Fill in each blank so that the resulting statement...Ch. 1.2 - Fill in each blank so that the resulting statement...Ch. 1.2 - Fill in each blank so that resulting statement is...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 5CVCCh. 1.2 - Fill in each blank so that the resulting statement...Ch. 1.2 - The bar graph gives the populations of the ten...Ch. 1.2 - The bar graph gives the 2011 populations of the...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 3-8, use this approximation to round...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 3-8, use this approximation to round...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 3-8, use this approximation to round...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 3-8, use this approximation to round...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 3-8, use this approximation to round...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 3-8, use this approximation to round...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 9-34, because different rounding...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 23-34, determine each estimate...Ch. 1.2 - The average life expectancy in Mozambique is 40.3...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 35-36, obtain an estimate for each...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 35-36, obtain an estimate for each...Ch. 1.2 - Ten people ordered calculators. The least...Ch. 1.2 - Ten people ordered calculators. The least...Ch. 1.2 - Travelling at an average rate of between 60 and 70...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 40ECh. 1.2 - 41. Imagine that you counted 60 numbers per minute...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 42ECh. 1.2 - 43. Without using a calculator, estimate the...Ch. 1.2 - Without using a calculator, estimate the number of...Ch. 1.2 - An online test of English spelling looked at how...Ch. 1.2 - An online test of English spelling looked at how...Ch. 1.2 - The percentage of U.S. college freshmen claiming...Ch. 1.2 - The percentage of U.S. college freshmen claiming...Ch. 1.2 - With aging, body fat increases and muscle mass...Ch. 1.2 - With aging, body fat increases and muscle mass...Ch. 1.2 - There is a strong scientific consensus that human...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 52ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 53ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 54ECh. 1.2 - Explain how to round 14.26841 to the nearest...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 56ECh. 1.2 - 57. In this era of calculators and computers, why...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 58ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 59ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 60ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 61ECh. 1.2 - College students are graduating with the highest...Ch. 1.2 - Explain how to use the estimate from Exercise 62...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 64ECh. 1.2 - 65. A forecaster at the National Hurricane Center...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 66ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 67ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 68ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 69ECh. 1.2 - Prob. 70ECh. 1.2 - In Exercises 71-74, match the story with the...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 71-74, match the story with the...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 71-74, match the story with the...Ch. 1.2 - In Exercises 71-74, match the story with the...Ch. 1.2 - 75. American children ages 2 to 17 spend 19 hours...Ch. 1.2 - Prob. 76ECh. 1.2 - 77. Group members should devise an estimation...Ch. 1.2 - Group members should begin by consulting an...Ch. 1.3 - CHECK POINT 1 Which necessary piece of information...Ch. 1.3 - CHECK POINT 2 Solve the following problem. If the...Ch. 1.3 - CHECK POINT 3 By paying $350 cash up front and the...Ch. 1.3 - CHECK POINT 4 Suppose you are an engineer...Ch. 1.3 - CHECK POINT 5 Your “lecture wardrobe” is rather...Ch. 1.3 - CHECK POINT 6 As in Example 6, a sales director...Ch. 1.3 - The first step in problem solving is to read the...Ch. 1.3 - 2. The second step in problem solving is to ____...Ch. 1.3 - True or False: Polya’s four steps in problem...Ch. 1.3 - True or False: When making a choice between...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 1-4, what necessary piece of...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 1-4, what necessary piece of...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 1-4, what necessary piece of...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 1-4, what necessary piece of...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 5-8, one more piece of information is...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 5-8, one more piece of information is...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 5-8, one more piece of information is...Ch. 1.3 - In Exercises 5-8, one more piece of information is...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use the following movie-rental options to solve...Ch. 1.3 - Use the following movie-rental options to solve...Ch. 1.3 - Acetaminophen is in many non-prescription...Ch. 1.3 - Acetaminophen is in many non-prescription...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 18ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 20ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 24ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 27ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 28ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 29ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 34ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 36ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 38ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 39ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 40ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 42ECh. 1.3 - Use Polya’s four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 44ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 45ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 46ECh. 1.3 - The map shows five western states. Trace a route...Ch. 1.3 - The layout of a city with land masses and bridges...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 49ECh. 1.3 - The figure represents a map of 13 countries. If...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 51ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 52ECh. 1.3 - As in Sudoku, fill in the missing numbers in the...Ch. 1.3 - The missing numbers in the 4-by-4 array are...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 55ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 56ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 57ECh. 1.3 - In Exercises 52-54, explain the plan needed to...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 59ECh. 1.3 - Make Sense? In Exercises 56-59, determine whether...Ch. 1.3 - Make Sense? In Exercises 56-59, determine whether...Ch. 1.3 - Make Sense? In Exercises 56-59, determine whether...Ch. 1.3 - Make Sense? In Exercises 56-59, determine whether...Ch. 1.3 - 60. Gym lockers are to be numbered from 1 through...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 65ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 66ECh. 1.3 - 63. One person tells the truth on Monday, Tuesday,...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 68ECh. 1.3 - 65. As in Sudoku, fill in the missing numbers...Ch. 1.3 - Prob. 70ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 71ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 72ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 73ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 74ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 75ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 76ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 77ECh. 1.3 - Prob. 78ECh. 1.3 - Group members should describe a problem in need of...Ch. 1 - 1. Which reasoning process is shown in the...Ch. 1 - 2. Which reasoning process is shown in the...Ch. 1 - In Exercises 3-10, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1 - Prob. 4RECh. 1 - In Exercises 3-10, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1 - Prob. 6RECh. 1 - Prob. 7RECh. 1 - In Exercises 3-10, identify a pattern in each list...Ch. 1 - Prob. 9RECh. 1 - Prob. 10RECh. 1 - Identify a pattern in the following sequence of...Ch. 1 - In Exercises 12-13, use inductive reasoning to...Ch. 1 - Prob. 13RECh. 1 - Consider the following procedure: Select a number....Ch. 1 - Prob. 15RECh. 1 - Prob. 16RECh. 1 - In Exercises 17-20, obtain an estimate for each...Ch. 1 - In Exercises 17-20, obtain an estimate for each...Ch. 1 - Prob. 19RECh. 1 - Prob. 20RECh. 1 - In Exercises 21-24, determine each estimate...Ch. 1 - Prob. 22RECh. 1 - In Exercises 21-24, determine each estimate...Ch. 1 - In Exercises 21-24, determine each estimate...Ch. 1 - A small private school employs 10 teachers with...Ch. 1 - Prob. 26RECh. 1 - Prob. 27RECh. 1 - 28. The bar graph shows the percentage of people...Ch. 1 - Prob. 29RECh. 1 - The bar graph shows the population of the Unites...Ch. 1 - Prob. 31RECh. 1 - Prob. 32RECh. 1 - Use the four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1 - Prob. 34RECh. 1 - Use the four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1 - Prob. 36RECh. 1 - Prob. 37RECh. 1 - Use the four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1 - Use the four-step method in problem solving to...Ch. 1 - Prob. 1TCh. 1 - Prob. 2TCh. 1 - Prob. 3TCh. 1 - In Exercises 3-6, find the next number,...Ch. 1 - In Exercises 3-6, find the next number,...Ch. 1 - Prob. 6TCh. 1 - Prob. 7TCh. 1 - 8. Round 3,279,425 to the nearest hundred...Ch. 1 - Prob. 9TCh. 1 - Prob. 10TCh. 1 - Prob. 11TCh. 1 - Prob. 12TCh. 1 - Prob. 13TCh. 1 - Prob. 14TCh. 1 - Prob. 15TCh. 1 - Prob. 16TCh. 1 - 17. The cost of renting a boat from Estes Rental...Ch. 1 - Prob. 18TCh. 1 - Prob. 19TCh. 1 - Prob. 20T
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