Chapter 11.8, Problem 62E

Classify each statement as sensible or silly, and briefly explain your answer.

(a)    I flipped a coin five times in a row and got heads, so I’m willing to bet $100 that it will be tails on the next flip.

(b)    There’s a 30% chance of rain tomorrow and there’s a 50–50 chance of my only class getting cancelled, so there’s a 35% chance I’ll be able to go golfing without missing class. (By the way, I’m not going to go golfing if it rains.)

(c)    According to duilawblog.com, the probability of being convicted when charged with DUI in California is 0.794. If 50% of those convicted get at least 48 hours in jail, the probability of spending at least 48 hours in jail if charged with DUI in California is 1.294.

(d)    If I buy one ticket to a multistate lottery, I have a better chance of being struck by lightning than I do of winning the grand prize.