Introduction To Statistics And Data Analysis
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337793612
Author: PECK, Roxy.
Publisher: Cengage Learning,
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Textbook Question
Chapter 10.2, Problem 12E
Researchers at Boston’s Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School analyzed records of breast cancer screening and diagnostic evaluations (National Expenditure for False-Positive Mammograms and Breast Cancer Overdiagnoses Estimated at $4 Billion a Year,” Health Affairs [2015]: 576–583). Discussing the downsides of the screening process, the article states that the rate of false-positives is higher than previously thought, and that false-positives lead to unnecessary medical follow-up that can be costly.
Suppose that screening is used to decide between a null hypothesis of
H0: no cancer is present
and an alternative hypothesis of
Ha: cancer is present.
(Although these are not hypotheses about a population characteristic, this exercise illustrates the definitions of Type I and Type II errors.) (Hint: See Example 10.6.)
- a. Would a false-positive (thinking that cancer is present when in fact it is not) be a Type I error or a Type II error?
- b. Describe a Type I error in the context of this problem, and discuss the possible consequences of making a Type I error.
- c. Describe a Type II error in the context of this problem, and discuss the possible consequences of making a Type II error.
- d. Which type of error are the researchers concerned about when they say that false-positives lead to unnecessary medical follow-up? Explain why it would be reasonable to use a small significance level.
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Problem 3. Pricing a multi-stock option the Margrabe formula
The purpose of this problem is to price a swap option in a 2-stock model, similarly as
what we did in the example in the lectures. We consider a two-dimensional Brownian
motion given by W₁ = (W(¹), W(2)) on a probability space (Q, F,P). Two stock prices
are modeled by the following equations:
dX
=
dY₁ =
X₁ (rdt+
rdt+0₁dW!)
(²)),
Y₁ (rdt+dW+0zdW!"),
with Xo
xo and Yo =yo. This corresponds to the multi-stock model studied in class,
but with notation (X+, Y₁) instead of (S(1), S(2)). Given the model above, the measure
P is already the risk-neutral measure (Both stocks have rate of return r). We write
σ = 0₁+0%. We consider a swap option, which gives you the right, at time T, to
exchange one share of X for one share of Y. That is, the option has payoff
F=(Yr-XT).
(a) We first assume that r = 0 (for questions (a)-(f)). Write an explicit expression for
the process Xt.
Reminder before proceeding to question (b): Girsanov's theorem…
Problem 1. Multi-stock model
We consider a 2-stock model similar to the one studied in class. Namely, we consider
=
S(1)
S(2)
=
S(¹) exp (σ1B(1) + (M1 - 0/1 )
S(²) exp (02B(2) + (H₂-
M2
where (B(¹) ) +20 and (B(2) ) +≥o are two Brownian motions, with
t≥0
Cov (B(¹), B(2)) = p min{t, s}.
"
The purpose of this problem is to prove that there indeed exists a 2-dimensional Brownian
motion (W+)+20 (W(1), W(2))+20 such that
=
S(1)
S(2)
=
=
S(¹) exp (011W(¹) + (μ₁ - 01/1) t)
롱)
S(²) exp (021W (1) + 022W(2) + (112 - 03/01/12) t).
where σ11, 21, 22 are constants to be determined (as functions of σ1, σ2, p).
Hint: The constants will follow the formulas developed in the lectures.
(a) To show existence of (Ŵ+), first write the expression for both W. (¹) and W (2)
functions of (B(1), B(²)).
as
(b) Using the formulas obtained in (a), show that the process (WA) is actually a 2-
dimensional standard Brownian motion (i.e. show that each component is normal,
with mean 0, variance t, and that their…
The scores of 8 students on the midterm exam and final exam were as follows.
Student
Midterm
Final
Anderson
98
89
Bailey
88
74
Cruz
87
97
DeSana
85
79
Erickson
85
94
Francis
83
71
Gray
74
98
Harris
70
91
Find the value of the (Spearman's) rank correlation coefficient test statistic that would be used to test the claim of no correlation between midterm score and final exam score. Round your answer to 3 places after the decimal point, if necessary.
Test statistic: rs =
Chapter 10 Solutions
Introduction To Statistics And Data Analysis
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