You work for a construction company that is considering a bid on a project to modernize the power grid in a country that is recovering from an earthquake. The cost to prepare the documentation that is necessary to submit the bid is $50,000. If a bid is submitted, you estimate that the project will be awarded with probability 0.5. The company's profit depends on the political situation prevalent in the country at the time of the project. Based on your experience, you conclude that with probability 0.2, the country would present favorable conditions and that the company would earn $240,000; with probability 0.7, the country would present stable conditions and the company would earn $140,000; and that with probability 0.1, the country would present unstable conditions and the company would lose 560,000. a. Would you recommend that the company bid on the project? b. Before your company bids on the project, what is the maximum amount you would pay for a forecast of the political situation that will be prevalent in the country? c. Prior to preparing the documents to submit the bid, you consider contacting a "well-connected consultant. For a mere $10,000, the consultant offers to inform you if she believes you will either win or lose the contract. From her track record, the consultant estimates that her forecast is correct 80% of the time. Should you hire her?
O
Δ
You work for a construction company that is considering a bid on a project to modernize the power grid in a country that is recovering from an earthquake. The cost to prepare the documentation that is necessary to submit the bid is $50,000. If a bid is submitted, you estimate that the project will be awarded with probability 0.5. The company's profit depends on the political situation prevalent in the country at the time of the project. Based on your experience, you conclude that with probability 0.2, the country would present favorable conditions and that the company would earn $240,000; with probability 0.7, the country would present stable conditions and the company would earn $140,000; and that with probability 0.1, the country would present unstable conditions and the company would lose 560,000. a. Would you recommend that the company bid on the project? b. Before your company bids on the project, what is the maximum amount you would pay for a
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps with 1 images
