You own a well-established energy drink company that sells 50M units per year at a price of $2.50 per unit. The variable cost of producing each unit is $1.00, and the annual fixed cost of operating the business is $50M. The business is all-equity and has an equity beta of 0.90. Assume a risk-free rate of 3 percent and a market risk premium of 6 percent. a) What is the present value of the first five net cash flows (total revenues minus total variable costs minus fixed costs) produced by this business? You are worried about regulation being passed in five years that would limit the amount of caffeine that can be contained in an energy drink. You forecast that you will only be able to sell 34M units per year in perpetuity starting at t-6 if this regulation is passed (the price, variable cost, and fixed cost would remain unchanged). If the regulation is not passed, you will continue selling 50M units per year in perpetuity. b) From the point of view of t=5, what is the present value of the perpetual future net cash flows if the regulation is passed? Would you exercise your real option to shut down the business and sell it for $80M if the regulation is passed? c) From the point of view of t=5, what is the present value of the perpetual future net cash flows if the regulation is not passed? Would you exercise your real option to shut down the business and sell it for $80M if the regulation is not passed? d) From the point of view of t=0, the probability of the regulation being passed at t=5 is 25 percent and the probability of the regulation not being passed at t-5 is 75 percent. What is the NPV of your business today, given that you have the real option to shut down the business and sell it for $80M at t=5?

Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Publisher:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
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You own a well-established energy drink company that sells 50M units per year at a price of $2.50 per unit. The variable cost of producing each unit is $1.00, and the annual fixed cost of operating the business is $50M. The business is all-equity and has an equity beta of 0.90. Assume a risk-free rate of 3 percent and a market risk premium of 6 percent.

a) What is the present value of the first five net cash flows (total revenues minus total variable costs minus fixed costs) produced by this business? You are worried about regulation being passed in five years that would limit the amount of caffeine that can be contained in an energy drink. You forecast that you will only be able to sell 34M units per year in perpetuity starting at t-6 if this regulation is passed (the price, variable cost, and fixed cost would remain unchanged). If the regulation is not passed, you will continue selling 50M units per year in perpetuity.

b) From the point of view of t=5, what is the present value of the perpetual future net cash flows if the regulation is passed? Would you exercise your real option to shut down the business and sell it for $80M if the regulation is passed?

c) From the point of view of t=5, what is the present value of the perpetual future net cash flows if the regulation is not passed? Would you exercise your real option to shut down the business and sell it for $80M if the regulation is not passed? d) From the point of view of t=0, the probability of the regulation being passed at t=5 is 25 percent and the probability of the regulation not being passed at t-5 is 75 percent. What is the NPV of your business today, given that you have the real option to shut down the business and sell it for $80M at t=5?

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Step 1: Given Information:

Here,

Particulars Values
Equity beta 0.90
Risk-free rate 3.00%
Market risk premium 6.00%
Sales units 50,000,000.00
Price per unit  $2.50
Variable cost per unit  $1.00
Annual fixed cost  $50,000,000.00
Part A. Present value of first five net cash flows ?
 Part B. Present value of the perpetual future net cash flows if the regulation is passed  ?
Part C. Present value of the perpetual future net cash flows if the regulation is not passed ?
 Part D. Net present value of all future cash flows at t=0  ?

 

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