You might think that if you looked at the first digit in randomly selected numbers that the distribution would be uniform. Actually, it is not! Simon Newcomb and later Frank Benford both discovered that the digits occur according to the following distribution: (digit, probability) (1, 0.301), (2, 0.176), (3, 0.125), (4, 0.097), (5, 0.079), (6, 0.067), (7, 0.058), (8, 0.051), (9, 0.046) The IRS currently uses Benford's Law to detect fraudulent tax data. Suppose you work for the IRS and are investigating an individual suspected of embezzling. The first digit of 146 checks to a supposed company are as follows: Digit 1 2 34 56 |7|8 |9 Observed Frequency 36 23 12 20 17 107| 147 a. State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for this test. b. Explain why a = 0.01 is an appropriate choice for the level of significance in this situation. c. What is the P-Value? Report answer to 4 decimal places P-Value = d. What is your decision? O Fail to reject the Null Hypothesis O Reject the Null Hypothesis

Glencoe Algebra 1, Student Edition, 9780079039897, 0079039898, 2018
18th Edition
ISBN:9780079039897
Author:Carter
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Chapter10: Statistics
Section10.4: Distributions Of Data
Problem 19PFA
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**Transcription and Explanation for an Educational Website**

---

**Understanding Benford's Law and its Application in Detecting Fraud**

You might think that if you looked at the first digit in randomly selected numbers that the distribution would be uniform. Actually, it is not! Simon Newcomb and later Frank Benford both discovered that the digits occur according to the following distribution: (digit, probability)

- (1, 0.301)
- (2, 0.176)
- (3, 0.125)
- (4, 0.097)
- (5, 0.079)
- (6, 0.067)
- (7, 0.058)
- (8, 0.051)
- (9, 0.046)

The IRS currently uses Benford's Law to detect fraudulent tax data. Suppose you work for the IRS and are investigating an individual suspected of embezzling. The first digit of 146 checks to a supposed company are as follows:

| Digit             | 1  | 2  | 3  | 4  | 5  | 6  | 7  | 8  | 9  |
|-------------------|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|
| Observed Frequency | 36 | 23 | 12 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 7  | 14 | 7  |

**Statistical Analysis and Hypotheses Testing**

a. **State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for this test.**

- Null hypothesis (H₀): The first digit distribution of the checks follows Benford's Law.
- Alternative hypothesis (H₁): The first digit distribution of the checks does not follow Benford's Law.

b. **Explain why \(\alpha = 0.01\) is an appropriate choice for the level of significance in this situation.**

- A lower alpha level (0.01) reduces the risk of Type I error, which is important in legal contexts such as fraud detection, where incorrect rejections of the null hypothesis could have serious consequences.

c. **What is the P-Value? Report the answer to 4 decimal places**

- P-Value = ___ (to be calculated based on data provided)

d. **What is your decision?**

- Options:
  - Fail to reject the Null Hypothesis
  -
Transcribed Image Text:**Transcription and Explanation for an Educational Website** --- **Understanding Benford's Law and its Application in Detecting Fraud** You might think that if you looked at the first digit in randomly selected numbers that the distribution would be uniform. Actually, it is not! Simon Newcomb and later Frank Benford both discovered that the digits occur according to the following distribution: (digit, probability) - (1, 0.301) - (2, 0.176) - (3, 0.125) - (4, 0.097) - (5, 0.079) - (6, 0.067) - (7, 0.058) - (8, 0.051) - (9, 0.046) The IRS currently uses Benford's Law to detect fraudulent tax data. Suppose you work for the IRS and are investigating an individual suspected of embezzling. The first digit of 146 checks to a supposed company are as follows: | Digit | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |-------------------|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | Observed Frequency | 36 | 23 | 12 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 7 | **Statistical Analysis and Hypotheses Testing** a. **State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for this test.** - Null hypothesis (H₀): The first digit distribution of the checks follows Benford's Law. - Alternative hypothesis (H₁): The first digit distribution of the checks does not follow Benford's Law. b. **Explain why \(\alpha = 0.01\) is an appropriate choice for the level of significance in this situation.** - A lower alpha level (0.01) reduces the risk of Type I error, which is important in legal contexts such as fraud detection, where incorrect rejections of the null hypothesis could have serious consequences. c. **What is the P-Value? Report the answer to 4 decimal places** - P-Value = ___ (to be calculated based on data provided) d. **What is your decision?** - Options: - Fail to reject the Null Hypothesis -
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