You have two biased coins. Coin A comes up heads with probability 0.4. Coin B comesup heads with probability 0.7. However, you are not sure which is which so you choose a coin randomly and you flip it. If the flip is heads, you guess that the flipped coin is B; otherwise,you guess that the flipped coin is A. Let events A and B designate which coin was picked. What is the probability P[C] that your guess is correct?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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You have two biased coins. Coin A comes up heads with probability 0.4. Coin B comesup heads with probability 0.7. However, you are not sure which is which so you choose a coin
randomly and you flip it. If the flip is heads, you guess that the flipped coin is B; otherwise,you guess that the flipped coin is A. Let events A and B designate which coin was picked.

What is the probability P[C] that your guess is correct?

Expert Solution
Step 1

The probability of getting a coin A=12=0.5

The probability of getting a coin B=12=0.5

Let us denote H=head and T=tail

Given that coin A comes up heads with a probability of 0.4. Coin B comes up heads with a probability of 0.7.

P(H|A)=0.4

P(H|B)=0.7

So, P(T|A)=1-0.4=0.6

And P(T|B)=1-0.7=0.3

 

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