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- In the final round of a TV game show, contestantshave a chance to increase their current winnings of$1 million to $2 million. If they are wrong, theirprize is decreased to $500,000. A contestant thinkshis guess will be right 50% of the time. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correctguess that would make playing profitable?You are a hotel manager and you are considering four projects that yield different payoffs, depending upon whether there is an economic boom or a recession. The potential payoffs and corresponding payoffs are summarized in the accompanying table Project Red Orange Green Blue Multiple Choice The expected value of project Red is O OO $110. $50. $100. Boom (80%) $80 $ 70 $200. $90 $ 110 Recession (20%) $70 $80 $ 90 $ 110You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…
- efer to the following table showing the probability distribution of payoffs from an activity to answer the question below: Units Payoff Probability 1 $30 10% 2 40 25% 3 60 30% 4 50 20% 5 10 15% What is the expected value?a. Consider the Oakdale Furniture Company described in the given problem. Under what circumstances might the major portion of the usage of the glue be predictable?b. If the demand were predictable, would you want to use a probability law todescribe it? Under what circumstances might the use of a probability model of demand be justified even if the demand could be predicted exactly?1) The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two (2) states of nature and two (2) decision altematives. Alternative Course of Action State of Nature Probability A Az 0.64 5 0.36 3 11 a) Using Maximin, decide the best action to be taken. b) Compute the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for each altemative course of action. c) Find the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). d) Using Return-to-Risk ratio (RTRR), decide the best action to be taken.
- Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utilityThe manager of XYZ Company is introducing a new product that will yield N$1000 in profits if the economy does not go into a recession. However, if a recession occurs, demand for normal good will fall so sharply that the company will lose N$4000. If economists project that there is a 10 percent chance the economy will go into a recession, what are the expected profits to XYZ Company of introducing the new product? How risky is the introduction of the new product?8) Draw a graph that shows the typical relationship between weighted probabilities (in prospect theory) and actual probabilities. How does this impact decision-making? 4
- Bob earn 60,000 a year and an accounting firm each year he receives Reyes Bob has determined that the probability that he receives a 10% raise is .7 the probability that he earns a 3% raise is .2 and the probability that he earns a 2% raise is .1 a competing company has offered Bob a similar position for 65,000 a year Bob wonders if he should take the new job or take his chances with his current job. a. Find the mathematical expectation of the dollar amount of his raise at his current job b.One investment option will give a guaranteed income of $100,000. An alternative option is risky - there is a 80%chance of earning $62,500 and 20% chance of earning $250,000. A risk-averse person will choose the guaranteed income of $100,000 over the risky option. True O False2. Kier, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 50,000 if the market is successful and lose 50,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 25,000 if the market is successful and lose 25,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 56% probability that the market will succeed and 44% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?