Answered: Which engineer would you guess did the…

Math

Probability

Which engineer would you guess did the work?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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Question

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You manage a systems engineering firm, and you often get projects by bidding on them. An
important aspect of bidding on such projects is estimating the amount to bid: a bid that’s too
high may mean your firm isn’t awarded the project, but a bid that’s too low may mean you are
awarded the project and lose money in the process. You have two cost engineers that estimate
project costs. Engineer 1 estimates about 70% of bids while Engineer 2 estimates the rest. It is
known that the error rate for Engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the probability of an error occurs
when she does the cost estimation, whereas the probability of an error in the estimate of
Engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose a bid arrives and a serious error occurs in estimating cost. Which
engineer would you guess did the work?

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