When I wear my lucky Phillies hat while watching a Phillies baseball game on TV, the Phillies almost always seem to win. So my hat truly is a lucky hat: wearing it causes the Phillies to play better. Two Things Being Correlated (in the premises): How They’re Purportedly Correlated: Conclusion Argued For (in the conclusion): Any Plausible Alternate Explanations? (yes or no): If so, what? (spurious coincidence, common cause, reversed): Explain this Alternate Explanation: Overall Quality of Argument (good or bad):

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