When coded messages are sent, there are sometimes errors in transmission. In particular, Morse code uses "dots" and "dashes," which are known to be sent in the proportion 3:4. This means that for any given symbol, P(dot sent) = 3/7, and P(dash sent) = 4/7. Suppose there is interference on the transmission line, and with probability 1/8 a dot sent is mistakenly received as a dash; in other words, P(dash received | dot sent) = 1/8. Also suppose that due to interference, there is probability 1/8 that a dash sent is mistakenly received as a dot; in other words, P(dot received | dash sent) = 1/8. When we receive a dot in the transmission, how confident can we be that it really was a dot that was sent? In other words, what is the posterior probability P(dot sent | dot received)?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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When coded messages are sent, there are sometimes errors in transmission. In particular, Morse code uses "dots" and "dashes," which are known to be sent in the proportion 3:4. This means that for any given symbol, P(dot sent) = 3/7, and P(dash sent) = 4/7.

Suppose there is interference on the transmission line, and with probability 1/8 a dot sent is mistakenly received as a dash; in other words, P(dash received | dot sent) = 1/8. Also suppose that due to interference, there is probability 1/8 that a dash sent is mistakenly received as a dot; in other words, P(dot received | dash sent) = 1/8.

When we receive a dot in the transmission, how confident can we be that it really was a dot that was sent? In other words, what is the posterior probability P(dot sent | dot received)?

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