What is your 95% credible interval for the number of people who will be alive in the year 3000 CE (including digital people)? Explain your reasoning by giving a roughly one-sentence justification for each important step of your reasoning. A 95% credible interval means that you believe there is a 95% chance that thetrue value will fall within your interval. If I were 95% confident that the number of books in a library was between 100 and 500, then my 95% credible interval would be 100-500.

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Quantitative Reasoning

What is your 95% credible interval for the number of people who will be alive in the year 3000 CE (including digital people)? Explain your reasoning by giving a roughly one-sentence justification for each important step of your reasoning.

"digital People" in the text: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AKxKR4CeakyBsGFoH/digital-people-would-be-an-even-bigger-deal

A 95% credible interval means that you believe there is a 95% chance that thetrue value will fall within your interval. If I were 95% confident that the number of books in a library was between 100 and 500, then my 95% credible interval would be 100-500.

Quantitative Reasoning
What is your 95% credible interval for the number of people who will be alive in
the year 3000 CE (including digital people)? Explain your reasoning by giving a
roughly one-sentence justification for each important step of your reasoning.
A 95% credible interval means that you believe there is a 95% chance that thetrue value
will fall within your interval. If I were 95% confident that the number of books in a library
was between 100 and 500, then my 95% credible interval would be 100-500.
Transcribed Image Text:Quantitative Reasoning What is your 95% credible interval for the number of people who will be alive in the year 3000 CE (including digital people)? Explain your reasoning by giving a roughly one-sentence justification for each important step of your reasoning. A 95% credible interval means that you believe there is a 95% chance that thetrue value will fall within your interval. If I were 95% confident that the number of books in a library was between 100 and 500, then my 95% credible interval would be 100-500.
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