What is an Epidemic Curve? An epi curve is a visual display of the onset of illness among cases associated with an outbreak. You can learn a lot about an outbreak from an epi curve, such as The outbreak's time trend, that is, the distribution of cases over time Outliers, that is, cases that stand apart from the overall pattern A general sense of the outbreak's magnitude Inferences about the outbreak's pattern of spread The most likely time period of exposure (Source: Center for Disease Control, US) Here you will compare epi curves from three countries- South Korea, Italy, and the USA. The table below shows the number of active cases in South Korea, Italy, and the USA. The data is shown in two-day intervals starting on February 15 and ending March 17 (note March 17 is a one-day interval). Cut and paste the data table into Excel or Google Sheets. Make and X-Y Scatter Plot (with connecting lines). This will be your epidemic curve. South Korea Italy USA 15-Feb 19 3 12 17-Feb 20 3 12 19-Feb 42 3 12 21-Feb 190 21 29 23-Feb 578 157 28 25-Feb 944 323 51 27-Feb 1729 655 54 29-Feb 3109 1128 60 2-Mar 4277 2036 85 4-Mar 5498 4636 138 6-Mar 6415 6387 289 8-Mar 7097 7375 504 10-Mar 7165 10149 949 12-Mar 7293 15113 1625 14-Mar 7180 21157 2830 16-Mar 7024 27980 4503 17-Mar 6838 31506 6196 Part II Questions Which outbreak shows the most cases in total? Which outbreak shows the quickest spread of Covid-19? What is exponential growth? Do any of the curves in your graph show exponential growth? Hint: this youtube video describing the Covid-19 outbreak in China will help you https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg Which curve indicates that the virus outbreak is slowing down? How can you tell? Based on your graphs is the outbreak in the US more likely to follow the trend in South Korea or Italy? Please explain your logic using the information from the graph Research (online) information about the steps taken from each country to prevent the spread of Covid-19. What are four major steps each country has taken to counteract the spread of Covid-19 What country appears to be doing better than the others and why? Based on your graph and your research what are your feelings about the spread of the Covid-19 in the US? Do you think the US has done the best it could to stop the spread of the disease? Covid-19 and your life What the biggest impacts that the Covid-19 outbreak has had on your life? What precautions do you personally take to counteract the spread of Covid-19?
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
What is an Epidemic Curve?
An epi curve is a visual display of the onset of illness among cases associated with an outbreak.
You can learn a lot about an outbreak from an epi curve, such as
- The outbreak's time trend, that is, the distribution of cases over time
- Outliers, that is, cases that stand apart from the overall pattern
- A general sense of the outbreak's magnitude
- Inferences about the outbreak's pattern of spread
- The most likely time period of exposure
- (Source: Center for Disease Control, US)
Here you will compare epi curves from three countries- South Korea, Italy, and the USA.
The table below shows the number of active cases in South Korea, Italy, and the USA. The data is shown in two-day intervals starting on February 15 and ending March 17 (note March 17 is a one-day interval).
Cut and paste the data table into Excel or Google Sheets. Make and X-Y Scatter Plot (with connecting lines). This will be your epidemic curve.
|
South Korea |
Italy |
USA |
15-Feb |
19 |
3 |
12 |
17-Feb |
20 |
3 |
12 |
19-Feb |
42 |
3 |
12 |
21-Feb |
190 |
21 |
29 |
23-Feb |
578 |
157 |
28 |
25-Feb |
944 |
323 |
51 |
27-Feb |
1729 |
655 |
54 |
29-Feb |
3109 |
1128 |
60 |
2-Mar |
4277 |
2036 |
85 |
4-Mar |
5498 |
4636 |
138 |
6-Mar |
6415 |
6387 |
289 |
8-Mar |
7097 |
7375 |
504 |
10-Mar |
7165 |
10149 |
949 |
12-Mar |
7293 |
15113 |
1625 |
14-Mar |
7180 |
21157 |
2830 |
16-Mar |
7024 |
27980 |
4503 |
17-Mar |
6838 |
31506 |
6196 |
Part II Questions
- Which outbreak shows the most cases in total?
- Which outbreak shows the quickest spread of Covid-19?
- What is exponential growth? Do any of the curves in your graph show exponential growth? Hint: this youtube video describing the Covid-19 outbreak in China will help you https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
- Which curve indicates that the virus outbreak is slowing down? How can you tell?
- Based on your graphs is the outbreak in the US more likely to follow the trend in South Korea or Italy? Please explain your logic using the information from the graph
- Research (online) information about the steps taken from each country to prevent the spread of Covid-19.
- What are four major steps each country has taken to counteract the spread of Covid-19
- What country appears to be doing better than the others and why?
- Based on your graph and your research what are your feelings about the spread of the Covid-19 in the US? Do you think the US has done the best it could to stop the spread of the disease?
- Covid-19 and your life
- What the biggest impacts that the Covid-19 outbreak has had on your life?
- What precautions do you personally take to counteract the spread of Covid-19?
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