Washer City: We Sell Washers... And That's All! Washers (that is, a disc with a hole in the middle) are important in the construction of a particular subassembly, and the inside diameter of the washer has to fit a very precise specification. Based on prior (perfect) manual inspection data, 75% of washers meet specifications, 15% are too big, and 10% are too small. A new electronic inspection machine has been purchased to reduce the need for manual inspection. The electronic inspection machine correctly identifies washers that meet specifications 95% of the time, and it correctly identifies washers that do not meet specifications 80% of the time. Question 15 Given that a washer fails to meet specifications, what is the probability that it is too big? p Question 16 If the electronic inspection machine reports that a washer does not meet specifications, what's the probability that the washer actually does meet specs?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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**Educational Content: Probability and Inspection Quality**

### Context

**Washer City: We Sell Washers... And That's All!**

Washers, characterized as discs with holes in the middle, are crucial components in the assembly of certain products. The internal diameter of these washers must comply with precise specifications. Based on historical data from thorough manual inspections, it has been noted that:
- 75% of washers meet the required specifications.
- 15% are larger than specified.
- 10% are smaller than specified.

To minimize reliance on manual inspections, a new electronic inspection machine has been introduced. This machine:
- Correctly identifies washers meeting specifications 95% of the time.
- Correctly identifies washers not meeting specifications 80% of the time.

### Problems

**Question 15**
Given that a washer fails to meet specifications, what is the probability that it is too big?

\[ \text{Let } p \text{ denote this probability.} \]

**Question 16**
If the electronic inspection machine reports that a washer does not meet specifications, what is the probability that the washer actually does meet the specs?

These questions involve calculating conditional probabilities based on the performance data of the inspection system and the distribution of washer sizes. Through solving, you will gain insights into the reliability and accuracy of the inspection machine used by Washer City.
Transcribed Image Text:**Educational Content: Probability and Inspection Quality** ### Context **Washer City: We Sell Washers... And That's All!** Washers, characterized as discs with holes in the middle, are crucial components in the assembly of certain products. The internal diameter of these washers must comply with precise specifications. Based on historical data from thorough manual inspections, it has been noted that: - 75% of washers meet the required specifications. - 15% are larger than specified. - 10% are smaller than specified. To minimize reliance on manual inspections, a new electronic inspection machine has been introduced. This machine: - Correctly identifies washers meeting specifications 95% of the time. - Correctly identifies washers not meeting specifications 80% of the time. ### Problems **Question 15** Given that a washer fails to meet specifications, what is the probability that it is too big? \[ \text{Let } p \text{ denote this probability.} \] **Question 16** If the electronic inspection machine reports that a washer does not meet specifications, what is the probability that the washer actually does meet the specs? These questions involve calculating conditional probabilities based on the performance data of the inspection system and the distribution of washer sizes. Through solving, you will gain insights into the reliability and accuracy of the inspection machine used by Washer City.
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