Using the quarterly dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. For instance, you would have three dummy variables - quarter 1, quarter 2, and quarter 3 and quarter 4 is a baseline quarter. Quarter 1=1 if sales occurs in January, February, March otherwise. Quarter 1=0 quarter 2=1 if sales occurs in April may or June, otherwise, quarter 2=0. Quarter 3=1 if sales occurs in July, August, or September otherwise Quarter 3=0.Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. what was your forecast error? if this error is large, karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. what can you do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure? The vintage restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida, is owned andoperated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year ofoperation. During that time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as ahigh-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts ofKaren and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growingrestaurants on the island. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needsto develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by monthfor up to one year in advance. Table 1 shows the value of food and beverage sales($1000s) for the first three years of operationTable 1- Food and Beverage Sales for the Vintage Restaurant ($1,000s)Year 1242235March232April178May184June140July145August152September 110October130November152December206MonthJanuaryFebruaryYear 2263238247193193149157161122130167230Year 3282255265205210160166174126148173235

From the given information, Quarter 1=1 if sales occurs in January, February, March otherwise.…

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Probability

Using the quarterly dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. For instance, you would have three dummy variables - quarter 1, quarter 2, and quarter 3 and quarter 4 is a baseline quarter. Quarter 1=1 if sales occurs in January, February, March otherwise. Quarter 1=0 quarter 2=1 if sales occurs in April may or June, otherwise, quarter 2=0. Quarter 3=1 if sales occurs in July, August, or September otherwise Quarter 3=0. Assume th

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

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ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

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Question

Using the quarterly dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. For instance, you would have three dummy variables - quarter 1, quarter 2, and quarter 3 and quarter 4 is a baseline quarter. Quarter 1=1 if sales occurs in January, February, March otherwise. Quarter 1=0 quarter 2=1 if sales occurs in April may or June, otherwise, quarter 2=0. Quarter 3=1 if sales occurs in July, August, or September otherwise Quarter 3=0. Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. what was your forecast error? if this error is large, karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. what can you do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure?

The vintage restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida, is owned and
operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year of
operation. During that time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a
high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of
Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing
restaurants on the island. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs
to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month
for up to one year in advance. Table 1 shows the value of food and beverage sales
($1000s) for the first three years of operation
Table 1- Food and Beverage Sales for the Vintage Restaurant ($1,000s)
Year 1
242
235
March
232
April
178
May
184
June
140
July
145
August
152
September 110
October
130
November
152
December
206
Month
January
February
Year 2
263
238
247
193
193
149
157
161
122
130
167
230
Year 3
282
255
265
205
210
160
166
174
126
148
173
235

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