Using the DJIA data and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, forecast the opening DJIA value for 2014. Use a = 0.8 and b = 0.2. Compare the MSE for this technique with the MSE for the trend line. YEAR DIJA FORECAST ERROR SQUARED ERROR 2016 14511.28647 2015 14113.91955 2014 13716.55263 2013 13104 13319.18571 -215.186 46304.89163 2012 12392 12921.8188 -529.819 280707.9576 2011 11577 12524.45188 -947.452 897665.0643 2010 10431 12127.08496 -1696.08 2876704.2 2009 8772 11729.71805 -2957.72 8748096.034 2008 13262 11332.35113 1929.649 3723544.77 2007 12460 10934.98421 1525.016 2325673.158 2006 10718 10537.61729 180.3827 32537.9209 2005 10784 10140.25038 643.7496 414413.5785 2004 10453 9742.883459 710.1165 504265.5023 2003 8342 9345.516541 -1003.52 1007045.449 2002 10022 8948.149624 1073.85 1153154.63 2001 10791 8550.782707 2240.217 5018573.521 2000 11502 8153.415789 3348.584 11213016.21 1999 9213 7756.048872 1456.951 2122706.589 1998 7908 7358.681955 549.318 301750.3147 1997 6448 6961.315038 -513.315 263492.3278 1996 5117 6563.94812 -1446.95 2093658.863 1995 3834 6166.581203 -2332.58 5440935.069 1994 3754 5769.214286 -2015.21 4061088.617 MSE 2626266.734 SLOPE 397.36692 INTERCEPT -786580.4

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question

Using the DJIA data and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, forecast the opening DJIA value for 2014. Use a = 0.8 and b = 0.2. Compare the MSE for this technique with the MSE for the trend line.

YEAR	DIJA	FORECAST	ERROR	SQUARED ERROR
2016		14511.28647
2015		14113.91955
2014		13716.55263
2013	13104	13319.18571	-215.186	46304.89163
2012	12392	12921.8188	-529.819	280707.9576
2011	11577	12524.45188	-947.452	897665.0643
2010	10431	12127.08496	-1696.08	2876704.2
2009	8772	11729.71805	-2957.72	8748096.034
2008	13262	11332.35113	1929.649	3723544.77
2007	12460	10934.98421	1525.016	2325673.158
2006	10718	10537.61729	180.3827	32537.9209
2005	10784	10140.25038	643.7496	414413.5785
2004	10453	9742.883459	710.1165	504265.5023
2003	8342	9345.516541	-1003.52	1007045.449
2002	10022	8948.149624	1073.85	1153154.63
2001	10791	8550.782707	2240.217	5018573.521
2000	11502	8153.415789	3348.584	11213016.21
1999	9213	7756.048872	1456.951	2122706.589
1998	7908	7358.681955	549.318	301750.3147
1997	6448	6961.315038	-513.315	263492.3278
1996	5117	6563.94812	-1446.95	2093658.863
1995	3834	6166.581203	-2332.58	5440935.069
1994	3754	5769.214286	-2015.21	4061088.617
			MSE	2626266.734
SLOPE	397.36692
INTERCEPT	-786580.4