Using Excel) Suppose that a polygraph can detect 58% of lies, but incorrectly identifies 24% of true statements as lies. A company gives everyone a polygraph test, asking "Have you ever stolen anything from your place of work?" Naturally, all the applicants answer "No," but the company

Using Excel) Suppose that a polygraph can detect 58% of lies, but incorrectly identifies 24% of true statements as lies. A company gives everyone a polygraph test, asking "Have you ever stolen anything from your place of work?" Naturally, all the applicants answer "No," but the company

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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Question

(Using Excel)

Suppose that a polygraph can detect 58% of lies, but incorrectly identifies 24% of true statements as lies. A company gives everyone a polygraph test, asking "Have you ever stolen anything from your place of work?" Naturally, all the applicants answer "No," but the company has evidence to suggest that 10% of the applicants are lying. When the polygraph indicates that the applicant is lying, that person is ineligible for a job.

a) Draw the probability tree for these relationships

b) What is the probability that a random job applicant is a dishonest worker who is cleared by the polygraph?

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