Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that the child has measles
A doctor is called to see a sick child. The
doctor has prior information that 90% of sick children in that neighborhood
have the flu, while the other 10% are sick with 1 measles. Let F stand for an
sick with measles. Assume for simplicity that F ∪ M = Ω,
i.e., that there no other maladies in that neighborhood. A well-known symptom
of measles is a rash (the event of having which we denote R). Assume that the
occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and the probability of having
a rash if one has flu is P(R | F) = 0.08. Upon examining the child, the doctor
finds a rash. What is the probability that the child has measles?
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