Two people have tried robbing in a government office in Bangladesh. They were about to be trapped but escaped successfully. To find the real robber, the police arranged a lie detector test for 50 people who were claiming that they are guiltless. Suppose that the probability of detection of not innocent people is 0.90 and guiltless people seem to be guilty with the probability 0.01. What is the probability Mr. X is guilty given that the test says he is not?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Two people have tried robbing in a government office in Bangladesh. They were about to be trapped but escaped successfully. To find the real robber, the police arranged a lie detector test for 50 people who were claiming that they are guiltless. Suppose that the probability of detection of not innocent people is 0.90 and guiltless people seem to be guilty with the probability 0.01. What is the probability Mr. X is guilty given that the test says he is not?
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