Time Period12345678Y₁200210215216219220225226Ŷ200e₁||||||||Please do all calculations with the accuracy of one decimal digit.1) Calculate the forecast for period 9, using a five-period moving average MA(5),2) If simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of alpha=0.4, and the initial forecast 200 is used, what isthe forecast for time period 4?3) If simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of alpha=0.4, and the initial forecast 200 is used, what isthe forecast for time period 9?4) Calculate MSE errors for both of the methods. Which method gives a smaller value of the MSE error?

Given information,time period120022103215421652196220722582262) Simple exponential smoothing…

Answered: Time Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Y₁ 200 210…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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How do you calculate an exponential smoothing model using alpha = 0.5 and 0.8. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Forecasts Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 116.0 6/4/2021 Friday 199 124.5 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 169.5 142.8 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 189.0 156.8 6/7/2021 Monday 117 159.5 164.5 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 128.5 158.8 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 124.5 142.0 6/10/2021 Thursday 151 120.0 124.3 6/11/2021 Friday 182 129.5 127.0 6/12/2021 Saturday 168 166.5 143.3 6/13/2021 Sunday 161 175.0 152.3 6/14/2021 Monday 119 164.5 165.5 6/15/2021 Tuesday 133 140.0 157.5 6/16/2021 Wednesday 139 126.0 145.3 6/17/2021 Thursday 146 136.0 138.0 6/18/2021 Friday 168 142.5 134.3 6/19/2021 Saturday 188 157.0 146.5…
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Here's a table with average monthly price of a stock from Jan 2021-July 2021. Month Price Jan 29000 Feb 27000 Mar 31000 Apr 30000 May 32000 June 28000 July 29000 Using a 3-period weighted moving average with weights (wt, wt-1, W-2) = (0.6, 0.2, 0.2), the predicted price August is Using an exponential smoothing model with = 0.4, and with the initial predicted price for Jan the same as the observed price for January, the predicted price for August is % Now, let's suppose that we finally observe that the price for August is 30000. The absolute percent error (APE) of your prediction for August is using the weighted moving average method and % using the exponential smoothing model. (Note: Round your answer to the nearest 2 decimal places. For your APE answer for example let's say you get 0.06786 from Excel, then you should type-in 6.79 as your answer here since it is represented as percentage. Do not enter any symbols other than integers and decimal.)
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