The weather in Columbus is either good, indifferent, or bad on any given day. If the weather is good today, there is a 60% chance the weather will be good tomorrow, a 30% chance the weather will be indifferent, and a 10% chance the weather will be bad. If the weather is indifferent today, it will be good tomorrow with probability .40 and indifferent with probability .30. Finally, if the weather is bad today, it will be good tomorrow with probability .40 and indifferent with probability .50. a. What is the stochastic matrix for this situation? b. Suppose there is a 50% chance of good weather today and a 50% chance of indifferent weather. What are the chances of bad weather tomorrow? c. Suppose the predicted weather for Monday is 40% indifferent weather and 60% bad weather. What are the chances for good weather on Wednesday?
Compound Probability
Compound probability can be defined as the probability of the two events which are independent. It can be defined as the multiplication of the probability of two events that are not dependent.
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Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the subject of probability. Although there are many different concepts of probability, probability theory expresses the definition mathematically through a series of axioms. Usually, these axioms express probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure with values ranging from 0 to 1 to a set of outcomes known as the sample space. An event is a subset of these outcomes that is described.
Conditional Probability
By definition, the term probability is expressed as a part of mathematics where the chance of an event that may either occur or not is evaluated and expressed in numerical terms. The range of the value within which probability can be expressed is between 0 and 1. The higher the chance of an event occurring, the closer is its value to be 1. If the probability of an event is 1, it means that the event will happen under all considered circumstances. Similarly, if the probability is exactly 0, then no matter the situation, the event will never occur.
The weather in Columbus is either good, indifferent, or bad on any given day. If the weather is good today, there is a 60% chance the weather will be good tomorrow, a 30% chance the weather will be indifferent, and a 10% chance the weather will be bad. If the weather is indifferent today, it will be good tomorrow with probability .40 and indifferent with probability .30. Finally, if the weather is bad today, it will be good tomorrow with probability .40 and indifferent with probability .50.
a. What is the stochastic matrix for this situation?
b. Suppose there is a 50% chance of good weather today and a 50% chance of indifferent weather. What are the chances of bad weather tomorrow?
c. Suppose the predicted weather for Monday is 40% indifferent weather and 60% bad weather. What are the chances for good weather on Wednesday?
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