The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months: Month Fund Price 1 62.7 2 63.9 3 68.0 4 66.4 5 67.2 6 65.8 7 68.2 8 69.3 9 67.2 10   70.1   Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the exponentially smoothed forecast with α=.40, Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α=.40and β=.30, and Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the linear trend line forecast. (Compute a and b by constructing columns xy and x^2) Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts, using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.

Practical Management Science
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Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months:

Month

Fund Price

1

62.7

2

63.9

3

68.0

4

66.4

5

67.2

6

65.8

7

68.2

8

69.3

9

67.2

10  

70.1

 

  1. Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the exponentially smoothed forecast with α=.40,
  2. Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α=.40and β=.30, and
  3. Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the linear trend line forecast. (Compute a and b by constructing columns xy and x^2)
  4. Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts, using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
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