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The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow. 230 360 230 250 270 320 230 300 250 310

The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow. 230 360 230 250 270 320 230 300 250 310

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow.
230 360 230 250 270 320 230 300 250 310 250 220

 

(a) Construct a time series plot. 400 350 300- 250- 200 150- 100- 50 0+ + + 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 400 T 350 300+ 250- 200- 150- 100- 50 0+ + 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month What type of pattern exists in the data? O The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. O The data appear to follow a trend pattern. O The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. 400 350- 300- 250 200 150- 100- 50 sest 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 400 350- 300- 250- 200- 150+ 100- s 50+ 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month
Transcribed Image Text:(a) Construct a time series plot. 400 350 300- 250- 200 150- 100- 50 0+ + + 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 400 T 350 300+ 250- 200- 150- 100- 50 0+ + 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month What type of pattern exists in the data? O The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. O The data appear to follow a trend pattern. O The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. 400 350- 300- 250 200 150- 100- 50 sest 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 400 350- 300- 250- 200- 150+ 100- s 50+ 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month
(b) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) 3-Month Moving Average Forecast (in $ millions) Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Time Series Value (in $ millions) 230 360 230 250 270 320 230 300 250 310 250 220 α = 0.2 Forecast (in $ millions) Which provides more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Exponential smoothing is more accurate, since its MSE calculated over all of the forecasted months is larger than the MSE using the three-month moving average. Exponential smoothing is more accurate, since its MSE calculated over all of the forecasted months is smaller than the MSE using the three-month moving average. The three-month moving average is more accurate, since its MSE is smaller than the MSE for exponential smoothing calculated over all of the forecasted months. O The three-month moving average is more accurate, since its MSE is larger than the MSE for exponential smoothing calculated over all of the forecasted months. (c) Using the more accurate approach from part (b), what is the forecast (in millions of dollars) for the next month? (Round your answer to the nearest million dollars.) $ million
Transcribed Image Text:(b) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) 3-Month Moving Average Forecast (in $ millions) Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Time Series Value (in $ millions) 230 360 230 250 270 320 230 300 250 310 250 220 α = 0.2 Forecast (in $ millions) Which provides more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Exponential smoothing is more accurate, since its MSE calculated over all of the forecasted months is larger than the MSE using the three-month moving average. Exponential smoothing is more accurate, since its MSE calculated over all of the forecasted months is smaller than the MSE using the three-month moving average. The three-month moving average is more accurate, since its MSE is smaller than the MSE for exponential smoothing calculated over all of the forecasted months. O The three-month moving average is more accurate, since its MSE is larger than the MSE for exponential smoothing calculated over all of the forecasted months. (c) Using the more accurate approach from part (b), what is the forecast (in millions of dollars) for the next month? (Round your answer to the nearest million dollars.) $ million
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