regression, econometrics 3The US Census Bureau tracks the median price for new hoe sales by month of the year. The median prices for April for the years 1990 to42011 are as follows:5YearPrice ($1000s)YearPrice ($1000s)1990130.02001175.271991121.02002187.181992120.02003189.591993127.02004222.3101994129.02005236.3111995134.02006257.0121996140.02007242.5131997150.02008246.4141998148.02009219.2151999159.92010208.3162000162.62011224.71718A. Construct and show a time series plot.19B. Develop a "2 Year" and a "3 Year" Moving Average Forecasting Model. What is the MSE for each model? Which would you recommend?What do both models predict for the 2012 April Median Home Price ?C. Develop a weighted 3 year moving average with weighing factors of t-1 = .75; t-2 = .15: t-3 = .10. What is the MSE for this model?Is this model preferable to the model you chose in Part B ?D. Develop and Exponential Smoothing model using the above data ? What value of a minimizes the models MSE ? What is the minimized MSE?Is this model preferable to models developed in Part B and Part C of this question ?20212223242526

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The US Census Bureau tracks the median price for new hoe sales by month of the year. The median prices for April for the years 1990 to 2011 are as follows:

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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ISBN:9780190931919

Author:NEWNAN

Publisher:NEWNAN

Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions

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Question

regression, econometrics

3
The US Census Bureau tracks the median price for new hoe sales by month of the year. The median prices for April for the years 1990 to
4
2011 are as follows:
5
Year
Price ($1000s)
Year
Price ($1000s)
1990
130.0
2001
175.2
7
1991
121.0
2002
187.1
8
1992
120.0
2003
189.5
9
1993
127.0
2004
222.3
10
1994
129.0
2005
236.3
11
1995
134.0
2006
257.0
12
1996
140.0
2007
242.5
13
1997
150.0
2008
246.4
14
1998
148.0
2009
219.2
15
1999
159.9
2010
208.3
16
2000
162.6
2011
224.7
17
18
A. Construct and show a time series plot.
19
B. Develop a "2 Year" and a "3 Year" Moving Average Forecasting Model. What is the MSE for each model? Which would you recommend?
What do both models predict for the 2012 April Median Home Price ?
C. Develop a weighted 3 year moving average with weighing factors of t-1 = .75; t-2 = .15: t-3 = .10. What is the MSE for this model?
Is this model preferable to the model you chose in Part B ?
D. Develop and Exponential Smoothing model using the above data ? What value of a minimizes the models MSE ? What is the minimized MSE?
Is this model preferable to models developed in Part B and Part C of this question ?
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

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