The St Petersburg Paradox involves a coin tossing game. The player tosses a fair coin as many times as is necessary until it comes up heads. The game yields a prize equal to £ 2", where n is the total number of tosses made. What is the expected value of the game? A £4 B) £8 C) £2 D Infinite E) £16
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- In a final round of a MegaMillion TV show, a contestant has won $1 millionand has a chance of doubling the reward. If he loses his winnings drop to$500,000. The contestant thinks his chances of winning are 50%. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correct guess that will make his betprofitable? Show workA manager is deciding whether to build a small or a large facility. Much depends on the future demand that thefacility must serve, and demand may be small or large. The manager knows with certainty the payoffs that willresult under each alternative, shown in the following payoff table. The payoffs (in $000) are the present values offuture revenues minus costs for each alternative in each event.What is the best choice if future demand will be low?Givenu(x)=x0.5 Lottery A Probability 0.50 0.25 0.25 Outcome 64 16 0 For automatic grading, give all numerical answers to exactly two decimal places. Do not include currency signs 1) What is the expected value? (Give the answer as 36.00, not 36) 2) What is the expected utility? 3) What is the certainty equivalent? (Number only) 4) What is the risk premium? 5) Would this person rather receive 20 for sure than play Lottery A? (Answer should be Y or N for auto-grading to work) 6) (Harder) In many applications of expected utility, it is possible to lose money. The usual way of handling this is to interpret utility in terms of final wealth. Suppose it costs money to play this lottery. If starting wealth is 100, calculate the expected utility of playing lottery A if the price of playing is 15. Your answer should be to two decimal places. (Note: calculating the certainty equivalent of the lottery would be a little different than we've done in class. Squaring your EU result would give…
- Mr Phiri has K10,000 in his account. He is considering investing in a project which has 70 % probability of earning a profit of K10,000 and a 30% probability of incurring a loss of K10,000. His utility at the moment is 20 utiles with the current K10,000. With K20, 000 his utility would be 25 utiles and with K0 his utility would be zero.a) What is the expected profit of the project? b) What is the expected marginal utility of the project? Is Mr Phiri likely to invest in the project? Mr Sinkala also has K10,000 from which he derives 20 utiles. However, Mr Phiri derives 15 utiles from the profit of K10,000.c) What is the expected marginal utility for Mr Sinkala? d) How can you describe Mr Phiri and Mr Sinkala in terms of their attitude towards risk?Mr Phiri has K10,000 in his account. He is considering investing in a project which has 70 % probability of earning a profit of K10,000 and a 30% probability of incurring a loss of K10,000. His utility at the moment is 20 utiles with the current K10,000. With K20, 000 his utility would be 25 utiles and with K0 his utility would be zero. a) What is the expected profit of the project? b) What is the expected marginal utility of the project? Is Mr Phiri likely to invest in the project? Mr Sinkala also has K10,000 from which he derives 20 utiles. However, Mr Phiri derives 15 utiles from the profit of K10,000. c) What is the expected marginal utility for Mr Sinkala? d) How can you describe Mr Phiri and Mr Sinkala in terms of their attitude towards risk?Your friend is contemplating buying a local restaurant. He has assessed the lifetime profits, including resale, to be $11 million with 20% chance, $6 million with 60% chance or $3 million with 20% chance. Knowing the most your friend would pay for the restaurant is $6.4 million, what can you infer about the situation? O A. The expected payoff of the restaurant is $6.333 million, the risk-discount being offered by your friend is $77.000 and your friend is risk averse with respect to this purchase. O B. The expected payoff of the restaurant is $6.4 million, the risk-premium being required by your friend $0 and your friend is risk neutral with respect to this purchase. o C. The expected payoff of the restaurant is $6.4 million, the risk-premium being required by your friend $200,000 and your friend is risk seeking with respect to this purchase. O D. The expected payoff of the restaurant is $6.333 million, the risk-premium being required by your friend is $333,000 and your friend is risk…
- Jakob is offered the choice between $100 or gamble rolling a single die. The gamble is this: if the die comes up 6, he earns $300, if a 5 comes up he gets $200. If a 1,2,3,4 comes up he earns $0. What is expected value of the gamble? (Round the decimal to the nearest tenth)Consider the St. Petersburg Paradox problem first discussed by Daniel Bernoulli in 1738. The game consists of tossing a coin. The player gets a payoff of 2^n where n is the number of times the coin is tossed to get the first head. So, if the sequence of tosses yields TTTH, you get a payoff of 2^4 this payoff occurs with probability (1/2^4). Compute the expected value of playing this game. Next, assume that utility U is a function of wealth X given by U = X.5 and that X = $1,000,000. In this part of the question, assume that the game ends if the first head has not occurred after 40 tosses of the coin. In that case, the payoff is 240 and the game is over. What is the expected payout of this game? Finally, what is the most you would pay to play the game if you require that your expected utility after playing the game must be equal to your utility before playing the game? Use the Goal Seek function (found in Data, What-If Analysis) in Excel.Becky is deciding whether to purchase an insurance for her home againtst burglary. the payoff for her is shown as follow: Net worth of her Net worth of her home: $ 20000 burglary(10%) Net worth of her Net worth of her home: $50000 burglary (90%) The insueance would cover all the loss from burlary and the insurance fee is $8000. Her utility funtion is given as u=w ^0.3 Should Beck purchase the insurance Explain.
- Johnny is "paid" by his parents $2o if he gets a grade A, $10 if he gets a grade B, whereas he has to pay his parents back $5 if he gets a grade other than A or B. On average 20% of the grades he gets are A, and 30% are grades B. What is the expected value of what he "earns" per grade ? What is the expected value of what he "earns" at school weekly if on average he gets five grades a week ? How long should Jim save until he collects enough money to buy a pair of brand new Hi-Fi headphones that cost $225?You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000.In the Hawaiian Beach Boy surf board vendor scenario, what if the fine was increased to $190 but the probability of a fine decreased to one in 20 days, 5%? What would be the expected value – Exp(RS) -- of continuing to rent surfboards? Assume the other numbers stay the same. He makes $300/day and to rent boards from friends costs him $100 a day. So, he makes $200 a day. Write out the expected value formula, plug in the numbers, and show the math. Hint: the Exp(RS) should be higher than the previously calculated $160.