The Schoch Museum (see Problem 30 in Chapter 11) is embarking on a five-year fundraising campaign. As a nonprofit institution, the museum finds it challenging to acquire new donors, as many donors do not contribute every year. Suppose that the museum has identified a pool of 8,000 potential donors. The actual number of donors in the first year of the campaign is estimated to be somewhere between 60% and 75% of this pool. For each subsequent year, the museum expects that a certain percentage of current donors will discontinue their contributions. This is expected to be between 10% and 60%, with a most likely value of 35%. In addition, the museum expects to attract some percentage of new donors. This is assumed to be between 5% and 40% of the current year’s donors, with a most likely value of 10%. The average contribution in the first year is assumed to be $50 and will increase at a rate between 0% and 8% each subsequent year, with the most likely increase of 2.5%. Develop and analyze a simulation model to predict the total funds that will be raised over the five-year period using 500 trials.
The Schoch Museum (see Problem 30 in Chapter 11) is embarking on a five-year fundraising campaign. As a nonprofit institution, the museum finds it challenging to acquire new donors, as many donors do not contribute every year. Suppose that the museum has identified a pool of 8,000 potential donors. The actual number of donors in the first year of the campaign is estimated to be somewhere between 60% and 75% of this pool. For each subsequent year, the museum expects that a certain percentage of current donors will discontinue their contributions. This is expected to be between 10% and 60%, with a most likely value of 35%. In addition, the museum expects to attract some percentage of new donors. This is assumed to be between 5% and 40% of the current year’s donors, with a most likely value of 10%. The average contribution in the first year is assumed to be $50 and will increase at a rate between 0% and 8% each subsequent year, with the most likely increase of 2.5%. Develop and analyze a simulation model to predict the total funds that will be raised over the five-year period using 500 trials.
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