The probability of breast cancer is 1% for a woman at age forty who participates in routine screening. If a woman has breast cancer, the probability is 80% that she will get a positive mammography. If a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability is 9.7% that she will also get a positive mammography. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer? (Hints: Use a Venn diagram and conditional probability methods. If you get confused working in terms of probabilities (most people do), multiply them all by 1000 and think/work in terms of integer counts of people instead.)

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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(Adapted from Edler, see Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, Psychology Review, 102(4), 1995, p. 684-704. See also https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/chances-are/). The probability of breast cancer is 1% for a woman at age forty who participates in routine screening. If a woman has breast cancer, the probability is 80% that she will get a positive mammography. If a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability is 9.7% that she will also get a positive mammography. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer? (Hints: Use a Venn diagram and conditional probability methods. If you get confused working in terms of probabilities (most people do), multiply them all by 1000 and think/work in terms of integer counts of people instead.)
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