Decision Alternative Produce pilot, d₁ Sell to competitor, d₂ Reject, 81 -100 100 State of Nature 1 Year, 82 50 100 2 Years, 83 150 100 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(8₁) = 0.20, P(82) = 0.30, and P(83) = 0.50 . For a consulting fee of $5000, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of a favorable network reaction to the series. Assume that the agency review will result in a favorable (F) or an unfavorable (U) review and that the following probabilities are relevant: P(F) = 0.69 P(U) = 0.31 P($1F) = 0.09 P(82|F) = 0.26 P(83| F) = 0.65 P($₁|U) = 0.45 P(82|U) = 0.39 P(83|U) = 0.16
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