The presidential election is coming. Five survey companies (A, B, C, D, and E) are doing survey to forecast whether or not the Republican candidate will win the election. Each company randomly selects a sample size between 1000 and 1500 people. All of these five companies interview people over the phone during Tuesday and Wednesday. The interviewee will be asked if he or she is 18 years old or above and U.S. citizen who are registered to vote. If yes, the interviewee will be further asked: will you vote for the Republican candidate? On Thursday morning, these five companies announce their survey sample and results at the same time on the newspapers. The results show that a% (from A), b% (from B), c% (from C), d% (from D), and e% (from E) will support the Republican candidate. The margin of error is plus/minus 3% for all results. Suppose that c > a > d > e > b. When you see these results from the newspapers, can you exactly identify which result(s) is (are) not reliable and not accurate? That is, can you identify which estimation interval(s) does (do) not include the true population proportion? If you can, explain why you can; if no, explain why you cannot and what information you need to identify. Discuss and explain your reasons. You must provide your statistical analysis and reasons.
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
The presidential election is coming. Five survey companies (A, B, C, D, and E) are doing survey to forecast whether or not the Republican candidate will win the election. Each company randomly selects a
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