The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in 1998. The data for the past five years are shown. Six years ago, the forecast for 1993 was 41 surgeries, and the estimated trend was an increase of 2 per year. Year Demand 1993 45 1994 50 1995 52 1996 56 1997 58 The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. i. Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with a= 0.6 and ß = 0.1 ii. Regression Model, y = 42.6 + 3.2x where y is the number of surgeries and x is the index for the year. 1. Find the MAD for trend-adjusted exponential smoothing for a and ß. Present the data in a table. 2. Find the standard error of estimate. 3. Coefficient of determination 4. Confidence interval at 95% from 1993 to 1997 and give your interpretation. 5. Prediction interval at 95% from 1993 to 1997 and give your interpretation. 6. Which method is best to use by the hospital administration, exponential smoothing or regression model? 引

The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in 1998. The data for the past five years are shown. Six years ago, the forecast for 1993 was 41 surgeries, and the estimated trend was an increase of 2 per year. Year Demand 1993 45 1994 50 1995 52 1996 56 1997 58 The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. i. Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with a= 0.6 and ß = 0.1 ii. Regression Model, y = 42.6 + 3.2x where y is the number of surgeries and x is the index for the year. 1. Find the MAD for trend-adjusted exponential smoothing for a and ß. Present the data in a table. 2. Find the standard error of estimate. 3. Coefficient of determination 4. Confidence interval at 95% from 1993 to 1997 and give your interpretation. 5. Prediction interval at 95% from 1993 to 1997 and give your interpretation. 6. Which method is best to use by the hospital administration, exponential smoothing or regression model? 引

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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