The Hungry Person restaurant has posted its sales (in thousands of dollars) for the last two years.

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
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Author:Amos Gilat
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The Hungry Person restaurant has posted its sales (in thousands of dollars) for the last two years.

Month

1st Year

2nd Year

January

201

216

February

216

223

March

232

240

April

201

244

May

221

232

June

213

220

July

220

211

August

214

213

September

202

217

October

217

220

November

224

212

December

236

216

 

a) Construct a time series plot in excel. (Label axes and graph)

 

b) Develop a four month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month. 

 

c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month.

 

d) Compare the result for the four month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain. 

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