The graph (attached) depicts yield curves for 5 November 2021, 5 November, 2022, and 5 November, 2019. The yield rates are given for each of those in the graph (attached). a) On 5 November 2019, policy rate stood at 1.5-1.75%. In March 2020, the central bank  cut policy rate first by 50bps on 4 March then by 100bps on 16 March, to 0-0.25% (where it remains). Could market particiapts from two years ago (5 November 2019) predict that those cuts were coming?

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The graph (attached) depicts yield curves for 5 November 2021, 5 November, 2022, and 5 November, 2019. The yield rates are given for each of those in the graph (attached).

a) On 5 November 2019, policy rate stood at 1.5-1.75%. In March 2020, the central bank  cut policy rate first by 50bps on 4 March then by 100bps on 16 March, to 0-0.25% (where it remains). Could market particiapts from two years ago (5 November 2019) predict that those cuts were coming?

Yield Curves, 5-Nov-19, 5-Nov-20 and 5-Nov-21
2.50
2.34
2.17
2.00
1.86
1.88
1.87
1.77
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.66
1.56
1.57
1.56
1.58
1.45
1.50
1.30
1.54
1.04
.32
1.00
0.79
0.66
0.56
0.50
0.39
0.33
05-Nov-2019
0.18
0.14
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
05-Nov-2020
-05-Nov-2021
0.00
0.12
0.14
1 Yr
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
1 Mo
2 Mo
3 Мо
6 Мо
5 Yr
1 Yr
1.62
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
05-Nov-2019
1.56
1.57
1.56
1.58
1.63
1.63
1.66
1.77
1.86
2.17
2.34
05-Nov-2020
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.18
0.33
0.56
0.79
1.32
1.54
05-Nov-2021
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.07
0.14
0.39
0.66
1.04
1.30
1.45
1.88
1.87
Transcribed Image Text:Yield Curves, 5-Nov-19, 5-Nov-20 and 5-Nov-21 2.50 2.34 2.17 2.00 1.86 1.88 1.87 1.77 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.66 1.56 1.57 1.56 1.58 1.45 1.50 1.30 1.54 1.04 .32 1.00 0.79 0.66 0.56 0.50 0.39 0.33 05-Nov-2019 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 05-Nov-2020 -05-Nov-2021 0.00 0.12 0.14 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Мо 6 Мо 5 Yr 1 Yr 1.62 Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 05-Nov-2019 1.56 1.57 1.56 1.58 1.63 1.63 1.66 1.77 1.86 2.17 2.34 05-Nov-2020 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.33 0.56 0.79 1.32 1.54 05-Nov-2021 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.14 0.39 0.66 1.04 1.30 1.45 1.88 1.87
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