The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4 millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4 millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?
|
SUBDIVISION |
YEAR |
ANNUAL (in MM) |
|
Gujarat Region |
1997 |
1068.9 |
|
Gujarat Region |
1998 |
1070 |
|
Gujarat Region |
1999 |
568.4 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2000 |
550.6 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2001 |
849 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2002 |
637.2 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2003 |
1160.3 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2004 |
1005.8 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2005 |
1316.4 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2006 |
1478 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2007 |
1178.9 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2008 |
911.1 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2009 |
641.6 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2010 |
1088.7 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2011 |
890.5 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2012 |
714 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2013 |
1118.6 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2014 |
705.7 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2015 |
622.9 |
|
Gujarat Region |
2016 |
764.9 |
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