The following table shows the number of women with breast cancer per 1,000,000 women in different age groups: Age 15-39 40-64 65+ Cases 250 2,250 4,000 As seen above, the prevalence rate [the proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a medical condition] of breast cancer for the younger group is very low compared to the older group. You can think of the prevalence rate as the prior probability a given woman has cancer in that age group. Alice (age between 15 and 39) and Elisabeth (age over 65) requested their mammograms approved by their doctors. Both of the tests turned out to be positive. The properties of the test are as follows: 90% of patients with breast cancer test positive, and 99% of patients without breast cancer test negative. Consider the data above. What are the posterior probabilities of Alice and Elisabeth having breast cancer given their test results, respectively, in percentage?

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The following table shows the number of women with breast cancer per 1,000,000 women in different age groups:

Age 15-39 40-64 65+
Cases 250 2,250 4,000

As seen above, the prevalence rate [the proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a medical condition] of breast cancer for the younger group is very low compared to the older group. You can think of the prevalence rate as the prior probability a given woman has cancer in that age group.

Alice (age between 15 and 39) and Elisabeth (age over 65) requested their mammograms approved by their doctors. Both of the tests turned out to be positive. The properties of the test are as follows: 90% of patients with breast cancer test positive, and 99% of patients without breast cancer test negative. 

Consider the data above. What are the posterior probabilities of Alice and Elisabeth having breast cancer given their test results, respectively, in percentage?

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