The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 5 6 13 8 Demand Year 7 8 Demand 12 13 1 7 Year Forecast Year Forecast 2 9 1 6.0 2 6.4 7 8 9.0 10.2 3 5 9 9 Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, the following forecast from periods 2 through 12 has been developed: 4 9 10 11 11 7 3 4 6 7.4 6.4 9.6 9 10 11 12 11.3 10.4 10.6 9.2 5 7.4 In the graph shown to the right, the actual demand and forecast developed using the naive approach are plotted. The forecasts derived using exponential smoothing are plotted for the first seven years. Using the point drawing tool five times, plot the forecasts derived using exponential smoothing given in the table above for years 8-12 (α = 0.40 and a starting forecast = 6.0). 14- 13 12- 11- 10- 9- 8+ 7- 6- 5 4 3- 2- 1- max Year 9 10 11 12 G Blue Line = Actual Demand Purple Line = Naive Approach Forecast Red Dots Forecasts for Exponential Smoothing for Years 1-7
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 5 6 13 8 Demand Year 7 8 Demand 12 13 1 7 Year Forecast Year Forecast 2 9 1 6.0 2 6.4 7 8 9.0 10.2 3 5 9 9 Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, the following forecast from periods 2 through 12 has been developed: 4 9 10 11 11 7 3 4 6 7.4 6.4 9.6 9 10 11 12 11.3 10.4 10.6 9.2 5 7.4 In the graph shown to the right, the actual demand and forecast developed using the naive approach are plotted. The forecasts derived using exponential smoothing are plotted for the first seven years. Using the point drawing tool five times, plot the forecasts derived using exponential smoothing given in the table above for years 8-12 (α = 0.40 and a starting forecast = 6.0). 14- 13 12- 11- 10- 9- 8+ 7- 6- 5 4 3- 2- 1- max Year 9 10 11 12 G Blue Line = Actual Demand Purple Line = Naive Approach Forecast Red Dots Forecasts for Exponential Smoothing for Years 1-7
Chapter6: Exponential And Logarithmic Functions
Section6.7: Exponential And Logarithmic Models
Problem 16TI: Recent data suggests that, as of 2013, the rate of growth predicted by Moore’s Law no longer holds....
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Transcribed Image Text:The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
5
6
13
8
Year
Demand
Year
Demand
1
7
7
12
Year
Forecast
Year
Forecast
2
9
8
13
3
5
1
2
6.0
6.4
7 8
9.0 10.2
9
9
Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, the
following forecast from periods 2 through 12 has been developed:
4
9
10
11
11
7
3
7.4
4
6.4
9
10
11
12
11.3 10.4 10.6 9.2
5
7.4
6
9.6
In the graph shown to the right, the actual demand and forecast developed using the
naive approach are plotted. The forecasts derived using exponential smoothing are
plotted for the first seven years.
Using the point drawing tool five times, plot the forecasts derived using exponential
smoothing given in the table above for years 8-12 (α = 0.40 and a starting forecast =
6.0).
14-
13+
12-
11-
10-
9-
8-
7-
6-
5-
4-
3-
2-
1-
0
AVA
W
1 2 3
4
☆
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Year
Blue Line = Actual Demand
Purple Line = Naive Approach Forecast
Red Dots = Forecasts for Exponential Smoothing
for Years 1-7
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