The following table provides the index value of the capped shareholder weighted top index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on the first working day of the years 2002 -2021: Year Index 2002 3754
The following table provides the index value of the capped shareholder weighted top index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on the first working day of the years 2002 -2021: Year Index 2002 3754
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Assist the analyst to obtain the index value forecasts

Transcribed Image Text:The following table provides the index value of the capped shareholder weighted top index on the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange (JSE) on the first working day of the years 2002-2021:
Year
Index
2002
3754
2003
3834
2004 5117
2005
6448
2006
7908
2007
9213
2008 11502
2009 10791
2010 10022
2011
8342
2012 10453
2013
10784
2014 10718
2015 12460
2016 13262
2017
8772
2018 10431
2019
11577
2020
12392
2021
13104
An analyst is interested in predicting the opening index value for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024. The analyst is considering
using trend analysis, as well as exponential smoothing (a = 0.65). However, a colleague suggested that the analyst may
consider the interest rate as a potential independent variable in a causal regression approach. To this end the following
information is available:
Year Interest rate (%)
2002
6
2003
6.5
2004
7.5
2005
7.5
2006
2007
2008
9
2009
9
2010
9.25
2011
9.5
2012
10
2013
10
2014
11.5
2015
11.5
2016
12
2017
12
2018
12
2019
12.5
2020
12
2021
11.5
Interest rate predictions obtained from the South African Reserve Bank are as follows:
Year Interest rate (%)
2022
11.0
2023
10.5
2024
10.0
Assist the analyst to obtain the index value forecasts.
8
8.5
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