The conditional algebritis affects 15% of college professors. The blood test for algebritis correctly identities the condition in 98.5% of affected people and incorrectly identifies 1% of healthy people as having the condition (false positive). Draw a tree diagram to answer: what percentage of college professors who test positive actually have the condition? (This is, what is the probability that college professor is sick given that th

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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The conditional algebritis affects 15% of college professors. The blood test for algebritis correctly identities the condition in 98.5% of affected people and incorrectly identifies 1% of healthy people as having the condition (false positive). Draw a tree diagram to answer: what percentage of college professors who test positive actually have the condition? (This is, what is the probability that college professor is sick given that they test positive)

Expert Solution
Step 1

From the given information,

The percentage of affect is 15%

That is, P(affect)=0.15 and P(not effect)=0.85

The blood test for algebritis correctly identities the condition in 98.5% of affected people and incorrectly identifies 1% of healthy people as having the condition (false positive)

P(true positive)=98.5%=0.985

P(false positive)=1%=0.01

Tree diagram:

Probability homework question answer, step 1, image 1

 

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