The average return for large-cap domestic stock funds over the three years 2009-2011 was 14.6%. Assume the three-year returns were normally distributed across funds with a standard deviation of 4.1%. Use Table 1 in Appendix B. a. What is the probability an individual large-cap domestic stock fund had a three-year return of at least 20% (to 4 decimals)? b. What is the probability an individual large-cap domestic stock fund had a three-year return of 10% or less (to 4 decimals)? c. How big does the return have to be to put a domestic stock fund in the top 10% for the three-year period (to 2 decimals)?
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
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