Suppose you pick her at the Denver aurport up and her luggage is nA there nihct is the prodadilt that megañs frrst flighet was delayed)

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Megan is flying from Boston to Denver with a connection in Chicago. The probability her first flight leaves on time is 0.15. If the flight is on time, the probability that her luggage will make the connecting flight is 0.95, but if the flight is delayed, the probability that the luggage will make it is only 0.55.

Suppose you pick her up at the Denver airport and her luggage is not there. What is the probability that Megan's first flight was delayed?
Transcribed Image Text:Megan is flying from Boston to Denver with a connection in Chicago. The probability her first flight leaves on time is 0.15. If the flight is on time, the probability that her luggage will make the connecting flight is 0.95, but if the flight is delayed, the probability that the luggage will make it is only 0.55. Suppose you pick her up at the Denver airport and her luggage is not there. What is the probability that Megan's first flight was delayed?
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Step 1

let A : Event luggage is not in Denver

B : Event first flight was delayed

probability first flight was delayed given that luggage is not in Denver

P(B|A) = p(BA)/P(A))

 

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