Suppose you are crossing the street in Belfast one night, and you are hit by a taxi. An eyewitness thinks the taxi was blue. There are only two taxi companies in Belfast: • Blue Taxi Company, who have 15% of the taxis (all of which are blue) • Green Taxi Company, who have 85% of the taxis (all of which are green) The eyewitness is 80% reliable at identifying the correct colour of taxis at night (i.e. under similar conditions). Based on this evidence, what is the probability that it was a blue taxi that hit you?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Suppose you are crossing the street in Belfast one night, and you are hit by a taxi. An
eyewitness thinks the taxi was blue. There are only two taxi companies in Belfast:
• Blue Taxi Company, who have 15% of the taxis (all of which are blue)
• Green Taxi Company, who have 85% of the taxis (all of which are green)
The eyewitness is 80% reliable at identifying the correct colour of taxis at night (i.e. under
similar conditions).
Based on this evidence, what is the probability that it was a blue taxi that hit you?

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