Suppose you are a participant in a game show. You have a chance to win a motorbike. You are asked to select one of the 500 doors to open; the motorbike is behind one of the 500 doors; the other remaining doors are losers and have balloons behind them. Once you select a door, the host of the game show, who knows exactly what is behind each of the door, randomly opens 480 of the other doors all at once that s/he for sure knows are losing doors and have balloons behind them. Then s/he reoffers you – whether you would like to switch to the other doors or keep your initial or original selection as before. Now in this case, you are going to make decision based on probabilistic reasoning. Therefore, whenever you are reoffered by the host to do the selections among the remaining unopened doors, what is the probability of winning for each of the remaining unopened doors (including your original selection)? Do you want to make a switch based on the probabilistic reasoning? If you are switching, which door in particular do you want select later and why does it matter? Show your work and calculation with relevant explanation in detail.
Suppose you are a participant in a game show. You have a chance to win a motorbike. You are asked
to select one of the 500 doors to open; the motorbike is behind one of the 500 doors; the other remaining doors
are losers and have balloons behind them. Once you select a door, the host of the game show, who knows
exactly what is behind each of the door, randomly opens 480 of the other doors all at once that s/he for sure
knows are losing doors and have balloons behind them. Then s/he reoffers you – whether you would like to
switch to the other doors or keep your initial or original selection as before. Now in this case, you are going
to make decision based on probabilistic reasoning. Therefore, whenever you are reoffered by the host to do
the selections among the remaining unopened doors, what is the probability of winning for each of the
remaining unopened doors (including your original selection)? Do you want to make a switch based on the
probabilistic reasoning? If you are switching, which door in particular do you want select later and why does
it matter? Show your work and calculation with relevant explanation in detail.
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