Suppose the number of earthquakes occurring in an area approximately follows a Poisson distribution with an average rate of 2 earthquakes every year. Show your work when solving the following problems. (a) Find the probability that there will be 1 to 3 (inclusive) earthquakes during the next year in this area. (b) Find the probability that there will be exactly 5 earthquakes during the next 3-year- period. (c) Consider 10 randomly selected years during last century. What is the probability that there will be at least 3 of those years with no earthquake?

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
13th Edition
ISBN:9781133382119
Author:Swokowski
Publisher:Swokowski
Chapter10: Sequences, Series, And Probability
Section10.8: Probability
Problem 10E
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**Title: Poisson Distribution and Earthquake Probability Analysis**

---

**Introduction:**

This exercise explores the use of the Poisson distribution to model the occurrence of earthquakes in a specific area. Given an average rate of 2 earthquakes per year, we will calculate various probabilities. 

---

**Problem (a):**

*Find the probability that there will be 1 to 3 (inclusive) earthquakes during the next year in this area.*

**Solution Approach:**

1. Identify the lambda (λ) for one year, which is 2.
2. Use the Poisson probability formula:
   \[
   P(X = k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!}
   \]
3. Compute the probabilities for k = 1, 2, and 3.
4. Sum the probabilities: \( P(1) + P(2) + P(3) \).

---

**Problem (b):**

*Find the probability that there will be exactly 5 earthquakes during the next 3-year-period.*

**Solution Approach:**

1. For a 3-year period, the average rate (λ) becomes 2 * 3 = 6.
2. Use the Poisson probability formula for k = 5:
   \[
   P(X = 5) = \frac{e^{-6} \times 6^5}{5!}
   \]

---

**Problem (c):**

*Consider 10 randomly selected years during last century. What is the probability that there will be at least 3 of those years with no earthquake?*

**Solution Approach:**

1. Calculate the probability of 0 earthquakes in a year: \( P(0) \) using λ = 2:
   \[
   P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-2} \times 2^0}{0!}
   \]
2. Use the binomial distribution to find the probability of at least 3 years with 0 earthquakes out of 10 years.
3. Calculate for k = 3 to 10 using the formula:
   \[
   P(Y = k) = \binom{10}{k} (P(0))^k (1 - P(0))^{10-k}
   \]
4. Sum probabilities for k = 3 to 10.

---

**Conclusion:**

This problem set illustrates how the Poisson distribution can
Transcribed Image Text:**Title: Poisson Distribution and Earthquake Probability Analysis** --- **Introduction:** This exercise explores the use of the Poisson distribution to model the occurrence of earthquakes in a specific area. Given an average rate of 2 earthquakes per year, we will calculate various probabilities. --- **Problem (a):** *Find the probability that there will be 1 to 3 (inclusive) earthquakes during the next year in this area.* **Solution Approach:** 1. Identify the lambda (λ) for one year, which is 2. 2. Use the Poisson probability formula: \[ P(X = k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!} \] 3. Compute the probabilities for k = 1, 2, and 3. 4. Sum the probabilities: \( P(1) + P(2) + P(3) \). --- **Problem (b):** *Find the probability that there will be exactly 5 earthquakes during the next 3-year-period.* **Solution Approach:** 1. For a 3-year period, the average rate (λ) becomes 2 * 3 = 6. 2. Use the Poisson probability formula for k = 5: \[ P(X = 5) = \frac{e^{-6} \times 6^5}{5!} \] --- **Problem (c):** *Consider 10 randomly selected years during last century. What is the probability that there will be at least 3 of those years with no earthquake?* **Solution Approach:** 1. Calculate the probability of 0 earthquakes in a year: \( P(0) \) using λ = 2: \[ P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-2} \times 2^0}{0!} \] 2. Use the binomial distribution to find the probability of at least 3 years with 0 earthquakes out of 10 years. 3. Calculate for k = 3 to 10 using the formula: \[ P(Y = k) = \binom{10}{k} (P(0))^k (1 - P(0))^{10-k} \] 4. Sum probabilities for k = 3 to 10. --- **Conclusion:** This problem set illustrates how the Poisson distribution can
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