Suppose that there are two urns, i A, B, and one is chosen randomly by nature. Urn A has 3 red and 6 black balls. Urn B has 6 red and 3 black balls. It is common knowledge that nature chooses each urn with probability 0.5. A sequence of three balls is drawn with replacement from one of the urns. Experimental subjects do not know which urn the balls are drawn from. Let z denote the number of red balls that come up in the sample of 3 balls, = 0,1,2, 3. Suppose that the sample, based on three draws, turns out to be r=2 2. (a) What is the posterior probability that the sample came from urn B?? (b) How can you identify an individual who uses the representativeness heuristic to answer this question? Explain??

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